Nigel Farage makes major election prediction as Reform overtakes Tories in swathes of UK
Speaking at a Reform UK tax announcement this morning, Mr Farage made a bold forecast about the election.
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Nigel Farage made the sensational claim this morning that Reform UK will get more votes at the election than the Conservative Party.
Mr Farage warned that the “tipping point” where Reform UK begins polling higher than the Tories is “closer than many realise”.
He pointed to one poll from YouGov last week, which showed Reform is now just two points behind Mr Sunak’s party, polling at 17% to their 19%.
However, he pointed out that digging into YouGov’s numbers, Reform is already ahead of the Conservatives in swathes of England.
He explained: “If you take out London and Scotland from last week’s YouGov poll, you get a very interesting picture”.
“We're ahead of the Tories in North East right now; ahead in the North West right now; ahead in the Yorkshire and Humber right now; ahead in the East Midlands right now; ahead in the West Midlands right now; ahead with male voters; ahead with Brexit voters.
He turned the Tory claim that voting for Reform UK risks letting in Labour on its head, warning: "In significant parts of the country we are now the challenger to Labour”.
Mr Farage pointed to UKIP’s success in 2015, in areas now referred to as the red wall, and said Reform UK has “the same potential” to appeal to Labour voters.
He concluded by making the astonishing prediction: “I believe we’ll pick up more votes across the country than the Conservative Party”.
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Mr Farage was speaking from a central London Reform UK press conference at which the party revealed bold new tax cutting pledges to help working people and peel away more Tory support.
Party chairman Richard Tice confirmed that the party will pledge to raise the income tax threshold to £20,000 per year, taking millions out of paying tax all together, and saving many up to £1,500 a year
In a complex explanation about how the party would afford the costly cut, Mr Tice said it would be paid for by reorganising Bank of England quantitative easing debt into 75-year bonds.
The Bank of England would no longer pay interest on quantitative easing reserves for commercial banks, which Reform says would raise £35 billion.
Quantitive easing - which saw £895 billion spent by the Bank of England to prop up Britain’s economy from 2009 to 2021 - is now being wound down, which Reform UK has also vowed to end.
QE made £124 billion of profits up until 2022, however since then the Treasury has transferred £60 billion to the Bank of England and they expect to incur £160 billion more in losses over the next decade.
However Governor Andrew Bailey has argued that Reform’s proposal would amount to a stealth tax on banks.
Mr Tice said Reform would also help small businesses by giving them a major tax cut and reducing regulation.
He said his party would lift the VAT threshold from £90,000 to £150,000 to make a “real difference”, as well as abolishing IR35 to “encourage work, momentum and striving”.
