Rishi Sunak thrown a lifeline as voters say Tories will survive after general election

Most voters disagree that the Conservative Party will be "completely" wiped out at the general election despite a constant onslaught from Labour and Reform UK.

An exclusive poll for the Daily Express found more than half (55 percent) believe Rishi Sunak’s party is “too well established” to be decimated at the ballot box, compared to 33 percent who disagree.

Reform leader Nigel Farage is gunning to make his party the “voice of the opposition”.

More than half (52 percent) or people polled for the Express believe the Conservatives will survive the election on July 4 even if its representation in Parliament is “significantly” slashed.

Nearly a third (31 percent) of people expected the Tories not to survive but 17% said they did not know.

Lachlan Rurlander, consultant at Whitestone Insight who conducted the projection, said: “Despite a narrowing in our poll between the Conservatives and Reform from six to just two points, Reform UK and Nigel Farage have some way to go before they are seen as a realistic alternative to form a Government as opposed to a protest vote.”

The poll of 2,014 adults on Wednesday and Thursday would see the Labour party winning 492 seats (41 percent of votes), the Conservatives at 47 (19 percent of the vote), the Lib Dems on 60 (11 percent) and Reform on three seats (17 percent).

This gives Labour a majority of 334 seats.

Half of people (50 percent) surveyed agreed the Tories would be more likely to win the next election than Reform UK while 20 percent disagreed.

And 54 percent agreed Mr Farage is too divisive a figure to be Leader of the opposition, while 28 percent disagreed.

When asked by the Express whether Mr Farage could unite the right against Labour as leader of the opposition by 2029, Mr Rurlander said: “I think so, yes. Who knows how many Tory MP’s there’ll be by 2025.The number could be very small. The other problem they’ve got, and you’ve seen this in the polls in the last week, is the Liberal Democrats are on the rise.

“That reflects tactical voting that is going on certainly in southern and southwestern England. Who’s to say how many MPs the Conservatives are even going to have?”

But when Britons were asked whether Rishi Sunak is more unifying a figure than Mr Farage, 40 percent agreed while 39 percent disagreed.

Tory peer Lord Hayward suggested some polls were “seriously over-emphasising” the strength of Reform.

He referenced a Greenwich Council by-election in east London this week where the Conservatives won six times as many votes as Reform did.

Lord Hayward said this was despite Reform putting in significant effort in Mottingham, Coldharbour and New Eltham by leafleting and knocking on doors.

He added: “Some opinion polls are seriously over-emphasising the strength of Reform.

“I don’t think they expected to win but I think they did expect to do a lot better than they did.”

Lord Hayward said three other council by-elections last week all showed the Tories “clearly improving” on results in 2023.

Meanwhile, Conservative former leader Lord Howard disagreed with suggestions that Mr Farage should have been brought into the Tory fold years ago.

Speaking on the BBC Radio 4 World at One programme, he said: “He’s not a Conservative and I don’t agree with many of his views, his party contains some people with some astonishing views.”

“The truth is that a vote for Reform in this election will just give Keir Starmer a big majority and that will not help people who want lower taxes, who want immigration to be brought under control, these are things which a Conservative government will deliver.”

Tory peer Lord Marland suggested it would be “very good for the nation” to have the Reform UK leader as a Member of Parliament.

He said: “I say this as a Conservative that doesn’t agree with a lot of things that Nigel Farage says, but I don’t think it’s a bad idea to have Nigel Farage as an elected politician.

“I think it would be very good for the nation, but we don’t want too many Reform elected politicians.”

Lord Marland also said Rishi Sunak has done a “pretty good job” in government, but added: “I think he hasn’t done a very good job as a campaigner, but I do admire his energy and I do think it’s not too late to turn it around.”