General Election latest: 12 Cabinet ministers at risk of losing their seat, poll reveals

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Nigel Farage has declared Reform UK could be level with the Conservatives “within a week”.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak sat down with Daily Express Political Editor Sam Lister.

Mr Sunak warned voters considering giving Nigel Farage their backing at the election they will put everything they value at risk.

And he told the Daily Express progress on tackling the small boats crisis will be lost, punishing green penalties will hit hard-pressed families and taxes will rise because a vote for anyone other than the Conservatives makes a Labour victory more likely. Read the full interview here.

Angela Rayner has insisted she has not changed her mind on the UK’s nuclear deterrent.

Ms Rayner is one of several MPs on the Labour front bench who voted against the renewal of the Trident nuclear weapons system in 2016, under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. But Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “The Labour Party is a risk to Britain’s defences.

“Angela Rayner’s comments this evening casting doubt on the future of our nuclear deterrent show that the claims made today by Keir Starmer about the ‘changed’ Labour Party are a con.

“If something happens to Keir Starmer then Angela Rayner would become responsible for Britain’s defences and she won’t use them. In an increasingly dangerous world, Labour cannot be trusted to keep us safe from Putin.”

The new Reform UK leader said: "I'm back.

"I'm standing as a candidate in this election, I've taken over leadership of Reform.

"Do you know why? I see our country going down the drain. I believe in Britain.

"These boring idiots that lead the Labour and Conservative parties are not worth the space.

"Let's make Britain great again."

Watch the Conservative's first party election broadcast here, focussing on taxes and defence.

Very odd scenes on Sky News this afternoon as Grant Shapps called Sky journalist Sam Coates while he was live on air.

Mr Coates accepted the call while talking viewers through this evening's bombshell MRP YouGov poll, but the Defence Secretary hung up when he was asked for his reaction to the news he's set to lose his seat.

The Tories would lose 232 seats compared to the 2019 election results, dropping to just 140, according to YouGov's projection.

This would be far fewer than the previous lowest number of Conservative seats in recent history: 165 in 1997, according to the poll for Sky News.

The MRP poll predicts Labour would win a 194-seat majority, the highest number since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Labour is in course for the biggest election victory in history, beating Tony Blair's 1997 landslide, according to a new YouGov poll.

The poll, using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) technique and carried out for Sky News, suggests that Sir Keir Starmer's party is on course to win 422 seats, with the Tories down to just 140.

A Conservative Party spokesperson said: "Nigel Farage risks handing Keir Starmer a blank cheque to rejoin the EU, impose the Retirement Tax on pensioners and hike taxes on hardworking Brits up and down the UK.

"Farage knows that Reform won’t win any seats, but he doesn’t seem to care that a vote for Reform only helps Labour. He’s doing exactly what Keir Starmer wants him to do.

"Just yesterday, EU insiders openly voiced their expectation that Starmer would seek a softer Brexit deal, opening the door to rejoining the EU all together. That would mean uncontrolled immigration and betraying the will of the British people.

"Is Farage really willing to risk undoing his life’s work by handing Starmer a blank cheque to rejoin the EU?

"Only a vote for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives can deliver a clear plan, bold action and a secure future for our country."

Asked what qualities he thinks he has which Richard Tice lacks, Mr Farage said: "Look, I've been doing this longer than Richard... there's a people's army out there that I built up over many, many years and they're still there.

"And they're very fond of Richard but they know me a little bit better. It's just as simple as that."

Mr Farage said there had been "no attempt at seduction at all" from the Tories when asked if Reform UK had been approached about a potential electoral pact.

He said he was aiming for "this political party to become the voice of opposition in the next parliament" which he claimed the Conservatives are "incapable" of being.

"There has been no attempt at seduction at all, at least not that I've noticed," he said.

Nigel Farage said Reform started to receive "some serious money" in donations in the last week, adding: "Eighth gear, which Richard (Tice) talked about - I think we're just going to do more of what we've been doing, with an even higher level of energy, higher level of optimism and, you know what, the money is going to come, we will have enough money.

"We're not going to have £30 million, but as the Facebook example I gave earlier proves, actually we're doing very, very well on a limited budget. It's amazing what a well-aimed stone from a sling can do."

Told he had previously said "Do I want to spend every Friday for the next five years in Clacton", Mr Farage said: "You're absolutely right, it's a huge commitment."

Mr Farage described his time at GB News as the "best job I've ever had" as he did not need to travel around the country, noting: "I was 21 years an MEP, I know what it's like to travel around constituencies to meet people, it's a huge effort, and part of that weighing up factor was absolutely the question you asked - am I prepared to give the time not just to politics but to a constituency as well."

Mr Farage said the demands of a parliamentary constituency are "greater" than those of an MEP, adding: "I'm making a massive potential commitment if I win that seat to this and to those people."

On when the previous Reform candidate for Clacton found out he would be replaced, Mr Farage said: "He knew six months ago it was a possibility."

Nigel Farage has said that he intends to lead a “political revolt” because “nothing in this country works anymore”.

“So the really big message here is what I’m really calling for and what I intend to lead is a political revolt. Yes, a revolt, a turning of our backs on the political status quo. It doesn’t work.

“Nothing in this country works anymore. The health service doesn’t work. The roads don’t work. None of our public services are up to scratch. We are in decline. This will only be turned around with boldness”

He added: “I’ve done it before. I’ll do it again. I will surprise everybody.”

Mr Farage said "I think the Donald's got other things to be dealing with" when he was asked whether he had discussed his latest political move with the Republican presidential candidate.

"I think the Donald's got other things to be dealing with just at this moment in time. He's been rather busy, including joining TikTok and racing up to ridiculous numbers," he said.

At a press conference, he said: "I genuinely believe we can get more votes in this election than the Conservative Party. They are on the verge of total collapse."

Asked whether he has boosted Sir Keir Starmer's chances by running for parliament, the new Reform leader said: "No, is the answer."

He added that in a week's time, "I think you'll see we're going to start drawing from Labour equally as much as the Conservatives.

"The Conservative Party have lost this election without my intervention."

Nigel Farage warns that "massively irresponsible immigration policies" have caused "the birth of sectarian politics in our country."

The new Reform UK leader said: "We're worried and we're fearful of many of the impacts that we've seen. We find what happened after those local elections just a few weeks ago, of candidates winning in Leeds, in Burnley, in Bradford and elsewhere, standing shouting 'Allahu Akbar', standing shouting 'we are coming to get you'.

"The birth of sectarian politics in our country caused by massively irresponsible immigration policies. And it was the Labour Party that opened the door and who would have believed that a Conservative Party would have accelerated it."

Nigel Farage has predicted Sir Keir Starmer has already won the election - and said his main focus is on 2029.

He told a press conference: "They are split down the middle on policy, and frankly right now they don't stand for a damn thing.

"So our aim in this election is to get many, many millions of votes. And I'm talking far more votes than Ukip can got back in 2015."

He continued: "When people start to realise in the red wall, with Reform second to Labour, when they start to realise that actually in those seats, it's a Conservative vote that's a vote for Labour, it's a Conservative vote that is a wasted vote, then I think we might just surprise everybody."

He added: "We are appealing to Conservative voters, we are appealing to Labour voters."

The Brexit champion said he felt like he was letting voters down by not standing in the election, as he nnounced he will stand for parliament in Clacton and lead Reform UK for the next five years.

"I simply couldn't help feeling that somehow they felt I was letting them down," he said.

"I've changed my mind. It's allowed you know, it's not always a sign of weakness. It could potentially be a sign of strength.

"So I am going to stand in this election. I'll be launching my candidacy at midday tomorrow in the Essex seaside town of Clacton."

He continued: "Richard (Tice) is more than happy for me to put my head and shoulders firmly over the parapet and take the flack so I'm coming back as leader of Reform UK, but not just for this election campaign. I'm coming back for the next five years."

The new Reform UK leader said there is a "rejection of the political class going on in this country".

He said he had been left too little time to prepare when Rishi Sunak called a surprise election and had decided the "rational thing to do" was to "do my bit as I put it supporting the country around the party".

But he said since then he had been talking to people on the streets and observed that "there is a rejection of the political class going on in this country in a way that has not been seen in modern times".

Mr Farage said: "The other thing that really shook me in a way last week were the number of people coming up to me in the street saying 'Nigel, why aren't you standing?"'

Mr Farage says he will launch his campaign in Clacton-on-Sea tomorrow.

"I took the day off yesterday, had a normal day.

"I began to feel a terrible sense of guilty. Difficult though it is, I can't let down those millions of people.

"So I have decided I have changed my mind.

"I am going to stand in this election."

"I've been to Dover to talk about the migrant crisis.

"More importantly, I've been out on the streets meeting an awful lot of people.

"The pollsters won't yet have picked this up.

"Something is happening. There is a rejection of the political class in a way that hasn't been seen in modern times."

The Express' Christian Calgie is in the room for Nigel Farage's bombshell declaration./news/politics/1906759/nigel-farage-general-election-reform

Nigel Farage is attacking both the Conservatives and Labour's approach to immigration.

He says: "Nobody believes a word they say, nobody is listening and everyone has zoned out.

"We know - whoever wins - taxes will remain high."

"There's not much interest in the two main parties.

"How do we go from interest to real excitement? How do we energise this election?"How do we really say, lets turn on the rocket boosters?

"I want to do ever, ever better."We can go from fifth gear, to sixth gear, seventh gear and eigth gear."Does Nigel want to stand? I've got a different question. This may drive more action."

Reform UK leader Richard Tice says, despite the best efforts of the Conservatives, support for his party is growing.

He adds: "This must be the immigration election."

T-5 minutes.

The Tories and Labour have announced who is going to represent them in the 7-way BBC debate this Friday.

Penny Mordaunt will speak for the Tories, while Angela Rayner is Sir Keir's pick.

Reform, the LibDems, Green, SNP and Plaid will also take part.

The Conservatives are down three points on last week, according to a new Redfield Wilton poll.

They say Labour's lead has grown to 26% since May 27, with the Conservatives down three points to just 20%.

Reform, meanwhile, is up one percent to 14%.

All eyes in Westminster are on YouGov's seminal MRP poll, out this evening at 1700.

Piers Morgan clashed with Nigel Farage over his decision not to stand as a general election candidate for Reform UK during last week's Question Time.

Rishi Sunak has tweeted a response to the LibDem's Henley election stunt, after party activists sailed through the back of his TV appearance.

Mr Sunak quipped: "Classic Lib Dems, always selling voters down the river".

Nigel Farage could win the constituency of Clacton, according to a poll.

When his name is specified as the Reform UK candidate, Mr Farage would secure 37% of the vote, overtaking the Conservative's Giles Watling's 27%.

There is still no news on what his announcement will be.

Rishi Sunak has denied stoking a "culture war" with his pledge to overhaul equality laws to make clear that sex means “biological sex” rather than gender.

Asked about accusations he was waging a “culture war” at a campaign event in Oxfordshire, the Prime Minister said: “No. It builds on our track record of treating these issues sensitively and with compassion, as of course we should, but ensuring that our laws are right, our guidance is right to protect the safety and security of women and girls and the wellbeing of our children.

“And I think that’s paramount in all of our minds.”

Rishi Sunak's campaign trip to Oxfordshire was briefly interrupted by a Liberal Democrat stunt.

As the Prime Minister visited a riverside rowing club and spoke with female members, Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper and a group of activists rode past on a boat.

The Lib Dem contingent, who were also campaigning in the same area, carried orange diamond shaped voting placards during the incident, waving them towards the Prime Minister and the media following him during the visit.

A Lib Dem source said: "This is just another small boat Rishi Sunak can't deal with."

Rishi Sunak said voters only have him or Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer to choose between on July 4, after he was asked if he fears the possibility of Nigel Farage standing in the election.

At a campaign event in Oxfordshire, the PM said: "At the end of the day on July 5, one of two people will be prime minister, either Keir Starmer or me.

"A vote for anyone who is not a Conservative candidate is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in No 10.

"So if you're someone who cares about tackling migration, both the boats and legal migration, if you're someone who wants a more proportionate, pragmatic approach to net zero that saves people money, and if you're someone who wants lower taxes, it's only the Conservatives that are going to offer those things. And that's the choice at this election."

Reform UK leader Richard Tice did not rule out Nigel Farage standing in the general election ahead of his "emergency" announcement this afternoon.

Asked what the announcement will be, Mr Tice told Talk TV: “We are looking forward to that announcement at 4pm. We are having a great campaign so far.

"Very energised getting huge, huge positivity and returns. Sometimes patience is a virtue…”

Express readers can vote in our online poll here on whether the Brexit architect should change his mind and stand in the general election.

Nigel Farage is now second favourite to be the next Tory leader following a flurry of bets, according to Betfair.

The market movement comes ahead of Mr Farage's 1600 announcement, where it's rumoured he may come out to stand as a candidate at the election.

Yesterday Farage was 33/1 (3% chance), today backed into 6/1 (14% chance) to take over from Rishi Sunak.

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “This was another empty speech from Keir Starmer. By refusing to commit to 2.5% defence spending by 2030 he has been unable to show the clear and bold leadership this country needs in uncertain times.

“Starmer’s choice for Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, has described the UK’s nuclear deterrent as ‘senseless’. This rubbishes the claim that Labour have changed. It's clear Starmer lacks the courage and conviction to stand up for Britain’s security.

“Only the Conservatives have a clear plan to deliver the bold action needed to keep Britain secure in a more uncertain world, including reaching 2.5% of GDP on defence spending by 2030, the biggest strengthening of our national defence in a generation.”

A Cabinet minister has told one Westminster journalist that Nigel Farage standing as an MP candidate could halve the number of Tory seats after the election, from 200 to 100.

Journalist Kevin Schofield shared the claim, in response to Bloomberg political editor Alex Wickham reporting that Farage standing would be the Tories' "worst nightmare" and prompt a potential Tory "wipeout".

There are three obvious constituencies Mr Farage could declare his intention to stand as an MP.

Clacton - UKIP won this seat in a 2014 by-election, and again at the 2015 general election. It has core Reform UK voter demographics, but the local candidate appears like he'd put up a fight if he were forced to stand aside for Mr Farage.

East Thanet - This is the newly reformed constituency of South Thanet, where Mr Farage stood and lost in 2015. Despite his defeat to outgoing MP Craig Mackinlay, he won 32.4% of the vote.

Hartlepool - Richard Tice stood here in 2019, but has since moved to Boston and Skegness. Reform UK won 25.8% of the vote here at the last election. One local Tory frets that it would be a walkover for Mr Farage, and they would be willing to be their house on him winning the seat if he stood there.

Nigel Farage is set to make an "emergency" general election announcement.

The Reform UK honorary president wrote on X: "I will be making an Emergency General Election announcement at 4pm today."

Kemi Badenoch is the clear favourite to take over from Rishi Sunak as Tory leader after the general election, according to the latest odds.

Bookies Ladbrokes puts the Business and Trade Secretary at 11/4, with Penny Mordaunt second at 5/1 ahead of Robert Jenrick at 6/1 and Priti Patel at 8/1.

Alex Apati of Ladbrokes said: "Rishi's days are almost certainly numbered - both as PM and Tory leader - if the latest odds are anything to go by... and at this point, punters seem increasingly convinced Kemi Badenoch will soon be replacing him."

A Tory MP has torn into the party's anti-Trans rhetoric today.

Elliot Colburn, a pro-LGBT MP for south London, tore into his party which this morning is focussing on Sir Keir Starmer's ability to say what a woman is.

He tweeted his party: "Here we go again, wondered how long it would take".

Ahead of Nigel Farage's 'big election announcement' at 4pm, rumours have already begun swirling that he could shock Westminster and announce he's running as a candidate.

The obvious constituency choice for the Reform president would be Clacton, which Douglas Carswell won in the 2014 by-election and 2015 election.

However the Express spots that just two days ago, the party's current candidate for Clacton, Tony Mack, liked a tweet describing such rumours as "Not going to happen!"

All eyes are on Mr Farage...

The Labour leader said: "We have the smallest army since the time of Napoleon, at a time when other countries are firmly on a war footing. And so even as we work tirelessly for peace, we have to be fit to fight.

"So let me be unequivocal: this Labour Party is totally committed to the security of our nation, to our armed forces and, importantly, to our nuclear deterrent."

Sir Keir Starmer has been joined at a campaign event in Greater Manchester by 10 ex-military Labour candidates.

They include three former Royal Marines and personnel from the Rifles, Intelligence Corps, Parachute Regiment, Royal Artillery, Royal Engineers and the RAF.

Some are wearing operational medals and regimental ties.

Jeremy Corbyn and his stance on defence is "long gone", Labour's shadow defence secretary said.

John Healey told LBC radio: "Jeremy Corbyn is long gone, he's not in Labour, he's not standing for Labour, the Labour Party has changed with Keir Starmer, just as the world has changed."

Asked if the shadow cabinet is fully behind Trident, a nuclear weapons system which is part of Britain's nuclear deterrent, Mr Healey said "yes".

He added: "Make no mistake about Keir Starmer, this is a man who was director of public prosecutions, put away the most dangerous terrorists this country has ever faced, he knows as I do, the first duty of any government is to keep the country safe and protect our citizens."

Kemi Badenoch has claimed that waiting lists were getting smaller prior to NHS workers going on strike.

Speaking to Sky News, the minister for women and equalities said: "One of the things that we're trying to do is actually make sure that we get staff back to work, we have a pledge for bringing down waiting lists, that is something that was coming down until the strikes."

She added: "We do have a plan for the NHS, of course there will always be issues form time to time, there's never been a time when there haven't been issues with the NHS."

Asked whether it is striking NHS workers who are causing the increase in waiting lists, Ms Badenoch replied: "What I'm not getting into is any kind of conversation that makes it sound like I'm disparaging NHS workers.

"We value them and we understand how hard they're working."

Rishi Sunak has taken to social media to reiterate his commitment to amending the Equality Act to tackle "confusion" on gender.

The Prime Minister posted: "Biological sex matters.

"We’re protecting women and girls."

Conservative MP Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg could make a move into reality TV as early as this year in a surprise career move.

According to reports, Discovery+ has approached the 55-year-old father of six to produce a series about life with his family in their seventeenth-century mansion in Somerset.

Sir Jacob, the current MP for North East Somerset, has confirmed that an offer has been received and that he is considering it.

Since the news broke, there has been speculation about whether Sir Jacob would accept the offer, what it could look like and whether anyone would be interested in knowing more about the MP’s day-to-day life.

Rishi Sunak has called a summer general election, with Brits taking to the polls on Thursday, July 4.

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Kemi Badenoch has slapped down calls for Nigel Farage to join the Conservatives, claiming he wants to 'destroy' the party.

Appearing on LBC this morning, the Secretary of State for Business and Trade told Nick Ferrari she would opposed to the former UKIP leader taking up a role within the Tories.

She said: "No, Nigel Farage has stood against many Conservatives, he wants to destroy the Conservative Party."

Badenoch said she wants to see the Tories 'go from strength to strength', hinting this would not be possible with Farage at their side. She added: "I think we should be talking about how to make sure it keeps going from strength to strength, not about trashing it, or taking it over."

Labour would not amend the Equality Act if elected because there are already provisions to protect single-sex spaces, shadow defence secretary John Healey has said.

Speaking to Times Radio, Mr Healey said: "We will not want to amend the Act, it's not needed. The Act, incidentally, was a Labour Act in 2010, that was opposed by the Tories, but it already provides protections for single-sex spaces for biological women.

"It already provides a definition of a woman, and sex and gender are different. What is needed is clearer guidance for service providers, from the NHS to sports bodies, and in prisons, on what single-sex exemptions need to be, and the best way to be able to do that is in guidance, not primary legislation.

"The Government has had 14 years to do that and it hasn't. This, to be honest, is a distraction from the election campaign, where most people want to hear why the cost-of-living pressures are so great, what the Tories are going to do, and what Labour is going to do, to try and help make life more affordable and Britain better."

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Speaking to LBC, minister for women and equalities Kemi Badenoch said: "We want people to have privacy and dignity. This is about protecting those who are vulnerable, it is not about stopping trans people from having privacy and dignity.

"That's why we have said you should have unisex toilets, a disabled toilet is an example of that, or where there are shared spaces, they should be on the basis of biological sex."

She added: "Changing your clothes doesn't change who you are, we want people who are trans to be protected as well, people who want to change their clothes should not be able to exploit the scenarios we have prepared and the laws we have put in place to protect those people who are genuine transgender people, those who suffer gender dysphoria.

"Just putting on a different set of clothes does not make you transgender."

Sir Keir Starmer will attempt to pitch Labour as the “party of national security” after Jeremy Corbyn's era.

The Labour leader will reaffirm his commitment to a “nuclear deterrent triple lock” as well as his ambition to increase defence spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the size of the economy.

Sir Keir said: "National security will always come first in the changed Labour Party I lead.

"Keeping our country safe is the bedrock of stability that the British people rightly expect from their government.

"My message to them is clear: Labour has changed. No longer the party of protest, Labour is the party of national security.

"The excellent former service personnel that are standing as Labour candidates are a testament to that change."

Rishi Sunak has promised to rewrite equality law to protect women by making it easier to bar trans people from female sports and single-sex spaces.

He will change the wording of the Act to specify that it protects “biological sex” rather than “sex” if the Conservatives win next month’s general election.

The Tories said it will make it simpler for service providers for women and girls, such as those running sessions for domestic abuse victims, to prevent biological males from taking part.

The party added that the proposed change to the law will not remove the existing and continuing protections against discrimination on the basis of gender reassignment provided by the Equality Act.

Mr Sunak said: "The safety of women and girls is too important to allow the current confusion around definitions of sex and gender to persist.

"The Conservatives believe that making this change in law will enhance protections in a way that respects the privacy and dignity of everyone in society."

Newly launched battle buses from the Conservatives and Labour will join the Liberal Democrats' Yellow Hammer 1 out on the road, as the election campaign enters its second full week.

Rishi Sunak will be campaigning in the South East as the Tories have vowed to amend the Equality Act to define the protected characteristic of sex as "biological sex".

Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer is expected to meet forces veterans in the north west of England as he attempts to shift perceptions of Labour's defence stance.