Reform could be on cusp of winning big - but it depends on Nigel Farage doing one thing

Throughout this election, many commentators have observed that Keir Starmer is ‘carrying a ming vase’ as he attempts to make it to polling day while maintaining Labour’s commanding poll lead over Rishi Sunak.

The saying, which describes the utmost caution used by an about-to-be newly elected Prime Minister, is referring to Starmer who has been cautious with his pledges in the run-up to July 4.

But the Labour leader isn’t the only one transporting precious porcelain across a slippery floor. Nigel Farage has a huge chance to reshape both the political landscape, and change the future direction of right-wing politics in this country.

But the difference between enormous Reform riches on election day, and huge disappointment for fans of the insurgent party, is extremely marginal.

Tiny changes in the level of support for Reform could be the difference between winning one seat, and winning two dozen.

If Nigel Farage pulls it off next Thursday, he will secure his epitaph as the most important British politician of the last two decades.

But if he fails, and repeats UKIP’s Commons flop of 2015, the question will once again be asked: Why couldn’t Nigel Farage resist shooting himself in the foot?

Last Friday’s BBC interview with Nick Robinson, as one senior Reform staffer confessed to me today, was a blow to the party’s momentum.

However this stalwart of the party insisted the controversy had now bounced off and left Reform’s fortunes no worse off. I don’t necessarily share this confidence, however.

Polls this week definitely suggest that momentum for Reform has stalled. Two polls today alone record falls of three percentage points in backing for Mr Farage’s party. And frankly the party simply cannot afford this level of impact just days before polling day.

Yes, postal votes are already being sent in at the height of Reform’s support and that will help Mr Farage, but a three-point fall and a rise in the Tories’ lead over Reform could be the difference between a dozen seats, and none; and the difference between the Tories winning 150 seats, and winning 80 seats.

One Conservative activist from a key marginal reported to me this morning that the Ukraine row has fed through to the doorstep and is helping them win back wavering Tory-Reform voters.

In just a few hours of knocking doors this morning, the Tory source said 15 of those wavering voters were “very receptive on Ukraine”, with two bringing it up without being prompted.

A Tory MP in a key Reform target seat echoed this, saying it is certainly helpful for the party, though concern about Mr Farage’s policy on NHS reform is also helping to push voters back into the Tory folds.

Nigel Farage has six full days of campaigning left before election day. If he wants to achieve his goal of becoming the real right-wing opposition to Labour in the next parliament, that gap must be closed back up.

Mr Farage is undoubtedly a once-in-a-generation political talent. But unfortunately, that also translates to Mr Farage having a unique talent for putting his own foot in it.