Tory polls LIVE: Boris reclaims lead in new survey– hapless Starmer left floundering again
BORIS JOHNSON'S Conservative party has soared ahead of Labour once again, according to a new poll.
Boris Johnson warned of National Insurance 'gamble' by MP
The Tories were placed on 40 points, followed by Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 36 percent, a Savanta ComRes poll of 2,087 adults has found.
A previous YouGov poll suggested the Tories had fallen five points to 33 percent, putting the Labour party in the lead, at 35 percent.
More than half of voters in the YouGov poll think the PM and his party do not care about improving the NHS, despite the pledge to invest a record £36billion over the next three years.
This is the first time Labour has been ahead since January during the height of the pandemic.
Although only five Tory MPs voted against the tax rise, the fallout continues as the poll reveals a generational divide with less than half of those under 50 believing that the taxes they pay fairly reflect the public services they receive.
Throughout the pandemic, the Tories have almost always been backed by more than 40 percent of the electorate and just last week the Tories has a four-point lead over Labour with 38 percent.
The news may rock some MPs as it comes just ahead of the Conservative party conference next month. .
READ MORE: Cabinet reshuffle: Who will stay and who will go in Boris' big mix up?
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KEY EVENTS
- Downing Street confirms mini reshuffle13:50
- Labour 'hasn't changed' to take lead12:39
- Labour ran in 'opposite direction' after tax hike12:21
- Are voters loosing faith?11:54
- Starmer should 'catch the wave' of anger 10:57
- Labour party support is 'pitiful'10:05
- Carrie Johnson vs Liz Truss09:11
- One percent believe they will be better off from tax hike08:46
- Government making best decisions in long run, says Culture Secretary08:08
Dowden says electorate may ‘reward’ government at next election over tax hikes amid poll slump
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said he thinks the electorate could "reward" the Government at the next election after it announced a hike to national insurance contributions to pay for social care reforms – despite a slump in the polls
He said: “You'll know as well as I do that opinion polls come and go - what the Government is doing is taking the long-term decisions in the national interest.
"And I think when you come to the next general election, which is some time away, people will weigh that up and what they will see as a result of this is, because we have put the extra money into the NHS, we have avoided a crisis in the NHS, we have increased capacity in the NHS and we have finally, after many governments previously ducked this challenge of social care - I remember 10, 15 years ago we were talking about this - finally the Prime Minister has actually done something about this.
"And I think, in the end, the electorate reward governments who are willing to take difficult decisions in order to protect the long-term national interest, and that is what that decision is all about."
YouGov poll surge for Labour suggests backlash over tax rises – Labour campaigner
Labour List editor Sienna Rodgers said: “It looked as if Boris Johnson might be getting away with his regressive tax rise and thin ‘social care plan’ that is really an NHS backlog-clearing plan.
“But a much-needed bit of good news for Labour has arrived.”
Professor Sir John Curtice sounds alarm over tax rises
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has said tax rises were less popular with pro-Brexit and working class voters.
A recent YouGov poll suggested 59 percent of people no longer believed Boris Johnson and his party cared about keeping taxes low compared with around 20 percent who thought he did care
Professor Sir John Curtice told the London Evening Standard: “You can see how the increase in taxation does potentially threaten the more working class end of the Conservative coalition.”
Boris claims lead in new survey results
Another new poll has revealed Boris Johnson and the Conservatives as the leaders.
A total of 2,087 adults took part in the poll by Savanta ComRes, which shows the Conservatives with 40 points, followed by Labour with 36.
\ud83d\udea8NEW Westminster Voting Intention\ud83d\udea8
\u2014 Savanta ComRes (@SavantaComRes) September 10, 2021
\ud83d\udd35Con 40 (=)
\ud83d\udd34Lab 36 (+2)
\ud83d\udfe0LDM 9 (-1)
\ud83d\udfe2GRN 4 (-1)
\ud83d\udfe1SNP 4 (=)
\u26aa\ufe0fOther 8 (+2)
3-5 Sept, 2,087 UK adults
(Changes from 27-29 Aug) pic.twitter.com/BLkdwRkxXu
How many seats would each party get?
The results of the poll mean that the Tories would fall below the 326 needed for a Commons majority.
The Conservatives would have won 311 seats if the general election were to take place today, down 54 seats from 2019.
The poll means that if there were a general election today the Tories would win 311 seats, down 54 seats from the 2019 general election, and below the 326 number for a Commons majority.
\u2014 Christopher Hope\ud83d\udcdd (@christopherhope) September 10, 2021
A similar poll of 14,000 people in May gave the Tories a 122 majority if election held then.
Downing Street confirms mini reshuffle
Suella Braverman has been reappointed Attorney General following her time away from Government on maternity leave, Downing Street has announced.
It comes after the QC, the first Cabinet-level minister to take maternity leave, attended a meeting of Boris Johnson's top team for the first time in six months earlier this week.
During her absence, she was designated Minister on Leave (Attorney General) while her deputy, Solicitor General Michael Ellis, was made Attorney General.
His place was taken by prisons minister Lucy Frazer.
No 10 confirmed on Friday that, as part of a mini-reshuffle, Mr Ellis and Ms Frazer would return to their previous roles.
Labour 'hasn't changed' to take lead
Carl Shoben from polling company Survation revealed on GB news that Labour has narrowed the gap on three or four occasions in the last year when the Conservatives have done something which the "public perceive to be very bad.
Examples include when MPs were seen to break Covid restrictions.
However, Mr Shoben said on all of these occasions the lead has been "very temporary".
He added that Labour "hasn't changed" but that the lead has come because the Conservatives have dropped points.
'I think what we're seeing here with this [poll] is Labour has really not changed. The difference with this poll is the Conservatives have dropped points to the Reform Party.'
\u2014 GB News (@GBNEWS) September 10, 2021
Carl Shoben from the polling company Survation unpicks a surprise Labour poll lead. pic.twitter.com/vNFCXd029i
Labour ran in 'opposite direction' after tax hike
Guardian columnist Owen Jones said the national insurance hike should have been a "personally gift wrapped" victory for Labour but the party ran "in the opposite direction".
Jones said the absence of an alternative from Labour leader Keir Starmer leaves "the electorate cold".
He said: "If Keir Starmer fails to put forward a credible alternative, Labour risks letting a scandal-ridden government off the hook."
Are voters loosing faith?
The Liberal Democrats also gained ground on the Conservatives in the poll, taking them to 10 percent.
But the Greens aren't far behind at nine percent and Reform UK have five percent.
Member of the Green party Molly Scott said although it is "great to see" Labour ahead, the poll could be an indication that voters are "losing faith" in the two main parties.
It *is* great to see Labour ahead of the Tories in a poll
\u2014 Green\ud83d\udc9aMolly (@GreenPartyMolly) September 10, 2021
But what the trend shows is that voters are losing faith in 'the two main parties'
While @TheGreenParty and @LibDems are gaining support
It should be a coalition government that replaces this awful #ToryShambles https://t.co/xOR3BIH0NM pic.twitter.com/hAVUPqkDZB
Poll results by age group revealed
The YouGov poll has revealed that just nine percent of 18-24-year-olds are in support of the Conservative party.
However, the biggest drop came from people over 65, where 50 percent are in support, a drop of nine points.
Rumours suggest this could be down to the triple lock suspension due to people earning less than usual during the pandemic.
Work and Pensions Secretary Therese Coffey has said the triple lock is to be suspended for 2022-2023 before being restored for the remainder of this Parliament.
Conservative support by age Group [Subsample Warning]:
\u2014 Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) September 10, 2021
18-24s: 9% (-5)
25-49s: 26% (-3)
50-64s: 35% (-5)
Over 65s: 50% (-9)
*It's only 1 poll*, so we can't read too much into it, but perhaps the triple lock suspension has had a greater effect than the NI rise? https://t.co/D9MnOsJlGc
Starmer should 'catch the wave' of anger
Despite being ahead in the polls, Labour leader Keir Starmer has faces pressure from both sides for failing to provide his own plan to reform social care.
Former Labour health secretary Andy Burnham warned Starmer he could "miss the biggest opportunity for some time" to challenge Boris Johnson and said he should "catch the wave" of anger directed at the PM.
Keir Starmer suggested last night he would back "wealth taxes" but failed to outline any concrete plans.
He told Sky News: "We need to look at a range of options - that includes the way people earn their money.
"We should look at all of that. Those with broader shoulders should pay their fair share."
'It's just one poll'
Social media users are reminding people that the election is still years ahead and this poll could be premature.
Co-found of Novara Media said: " Labor led most polls between 2010 and 2015 under Ed Miliband, very often by double digits.
"I feel like this stuff has been memory-holed. So, yeah, it's one poll."
It\u2019s 1 poll and the Tories aren\u2019t going to get 33% - nor Labour a majority with 35% you suspect - but however bad Labour is the Tory vote does feel really soft. In Batley & Spen they felt like a paper tiger, in Amersham they were hammered.
\u2014 Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) September 9, 2021
Interesting few months ahead! https://t.co/nqP46t7buz
People opted out of using data as they 'didn't trust government'
Kate Garroway and Martin Lewis clashed with Oliver Dowden on Good Morning Britain this morning as they discussed the data protection reform.
Lewis began by pointing out there were a million people in June who opted out of using data because they didn’t “trust the government”.
Garraway went on to quiz the MP over why she still isn’t allowed to see her husband, Derek Draper’s scans.
Labour party support is 'pitiful'
Despite the poll showing Labour out in front, political commentator Owen Jones said the rise in support for the party is "pitiful".
Jones took to Twitter to voice his opinions saying Labour is in a "terrible state" and is heading for a worse result than 2019.
To be honest, given Ed Miliband had several big leads, and given Labour had several leads even in 2019 precisely because of a splintering of the Tory vote, the fact people are hyping up a poll showing Labour's support isn't increasing is genuinely a bit pitiful
\u2014 Owen Jones \ud83c\udf39 (@OwenJones84) September 10, 2021
What will the £36 billion do for the NHS?
Currently, 5.5 million people are waiting for treatment or surgery so the PM pledged to tackle NHS Covid backlogs and cut waiting times with the new investment for health and social care.
"Responsible, fair and necessary" action will be taken for the biggest catch-up plan in history and increase NHS capacity to 110 percent of planned activity levels by 2023/24.
The new funding is expected to fund an extra 9 million checks, scans, and operations.
Conservatives 'vulnerable on right wing flank'
A university professor has warned that the Conservatives are "vulnerable on right wing flank" following the poll results.
Politics professor Matthew Goodwin said the party is drifting into the "don't knows".
I've not looked at data yet but suspect Cons are drifting into don't knows rather than to other parties. Either way, Johnson is definitely vulnerable on right wing flank. https://t.co/IyuWyERUvz
\u2014 Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) September 9, 2021
'I don't remember voting Carrie Johnson for Prime Minister'
Twitter users aren't happy about rumours of an unelected person making decisions in Downing Street.
One user said: "I don't remember voting Carrie Johnson for Prime Minister"
Excuse me?! So Carrie Johnson reportedly wants Liz Truss gone. I\u2019m no Liz Truss fan. But what political position does Carrie Johnson hold? HOW many people voted for her? The answer is none and zero respectively.
\u2014 Dr. Jennifer Cassidy (@OxfordDiplomat) September 9, 2021
Carrie Johnson vs Liz Truss
Rumours are circulating of a "huge row" between Carrie Johnson and trade minister Liz Truss over reports of a reshuffle in the cabinet.
Reports suggest that Carrie Johnson wants the trade secretary replaced.
+UPDATE+
\u2014 Nick\ud83c\uddec\ud83c\udde7\ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa (@nicktolhurst) September 9, 2021
Reports of \u201chuge row\u201d between trade minister Liz Truss and Carrie Symonds over trade deal policy.
Symonds seems to have been previously given a false assurance that animal welfare policies were to be included in future trade deals.
Who voted against the tax rise?
Only five Conservative MPs voted in opposition of the tax hike, they were Esther McVey, John Redwood, Christopher Chope, Philip Davies, and Neil Hudson.
This is despite trade secretary, Liz Truss, leader of the Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg, and minister of state at the Cabinet Office, Lord Frost, all signaling their opposition earlier in the week.
One percent believe they will be better off from tax hike
Only one percent of voters in the poll believe the plans to fund an overhaul of social care will leave them better off, including the over-65s.
Earlier this week Boris Johnson announce a 1.25 percentage point increase in national insurance, the biggest rise for two decades, to help pay for a £12 billion package for the NHS and social care reform.
Poll results in full
The poll results bring the Tories' 153 consecutive poll leads to an end according to Election Maps UK.
Conservative dropped five points, Labour up one and Liberal Democrats up two points.
Westminster Voting Intention:
\u2014 Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) September 9, 2021
LAB: 35% (+1)
CON: 33% (-5)
LDM: 10% (+2)
Via @YouGov, TBC.
Changes w/ 2-3 Sep.
Tories 'sacrificed' their reputation
YouGov's political research director, Anthony Wells said the government may have "sacrificed" their reputation for low taxes after the tax hike.
Mr Wells said: “We should be cautious of leaping to too many conclusions from a single poll but . . . it looks as if the government may have sacrificed their reputation for low taxes amongst Tory voters without actually getting much credit for helping the NHS.”
Government making best decisions in long run, says Culture Secretary
Oliver Dowden said the government believes it is making the best decisions in order to protect the nation in the future in terms of taxes.
The Culture Secretary was quizzed on Sky News the morning following the poll.
He said: “You know as well as I do that opinion polls come and go what the government is doing is taking the long-term decisions in the national interest.
"I think when you come to the next election which is some time away people will weigh that up.
"I think in the end the electorate rewards governments who are willing to make difficult decisions in order to protect the national interest and that is what the decision is all about."