Labour facing election nightmare in Scotland as new poll reveals SNP shock
Labour is down three points in the latest survey ahead of tomorrow's General Election.
Labour has dropped behind the SNP in a bombshell new poll ahead of the General Election.
A survey by Savanta for The Scotsman put Sir Keir Starmer's party down three points to 31 percent, while the SNP is unchanged at 34 percent.
According to analysis by Professor Sir John Curtice, Labour, which won just one seat north of the border in the 2019 election, is on course to have 22 Scottish MPs while the SNP will keep 24 seats.
The poll, carried out between June 28 and July 2, suggests the Conservatives are on 15 percent, up one point, while the Liberal Democrats are at nine percent, up two points on the last poll earlier in June.
The latest poll of 1,083 Scottish adults found six percent said they would back Reform UK, no change since the last poll, while the Greens are up one point at three percent, and two percent said they would vote for other parties.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: "Our final Scottish voting intention before July 4 suggests the SNP is ahead of Labour, showing a modest improvement and potentially blunting their losses on election night.
"If our results were reflected on polling day, John Swinney's election as SNP leader looks like it will have come just in the nick of time.
"That being said, Labour's efficient vote, in particular around the central belt, will still mean it's likely going to be a very good evening for Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer.
"Their majority is no longer dependent on Scotland, but they'll want to squeeze the SNP as much as they can."
Our community members are treated to special offers, promotions, and adverts from us and our partners. You can check out at any time. Read our Privacy Policy
Savanta's poll also suggests the SNP, unchanged at 37 percent, is ahead of Labour in Holyrood constituency voting intentions, with the latter at 32 percent, down three points on the last poll.
The poll puts the Conservatives on 16 percent, up two points, while the Liberal Democrats are on nine percent, up one point, with 6% saying they would vote for others, up one point.
The Holyrood list vote is much closer, with the SNP on 29 percent (down two points), Labour on 28 percent (down one point) and the Conservatives on 16 percent, also down one point.
The Greens are on 11 percent, up two points, the Lib Dems are on 11 percent, also up two points, and support for "other" is at five percent, up one point.
Analysis by Prof Curtice suggests that if these results are reflected at election time, the SNP would remain the largest party in Holyrood with 46 MSPs.
Labour would be a close second with 37 MSPs, and the Conservatives would be reduced to 21 MSPs.
SNP campaign director Stewart Hosie said: "The result of the election in England is a foregone conclusion and the only story left in this election is Scotland - where it is hotly contested between the SNP and the Labour Party.
"If people in Scotland want to make sure that Scotland's interests are put first, if they want to ensure that we have an end to cuts, if they want to ensure that decisions about Scotland are made in Scotland, for Scotland, then they've got to vote SNP.
"It is only SNP voices in the House of Commons that will hold a Labour government to account, given that they're going to win hands down in England.
"Only the SNP offers Scotland the hope of a better future. But we have to vote for it."
