Emmanuel Macron has vested interest in pushing for HARD-BREXIT, chief strategist warns
FRENCH president-elect Emmanuel Macron as a vested interest in supporting the European Union’s hardline approach to Brexit, a chief currency strategist said.
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Simon Derrick, of BNY Mellon, added the pro-Brussels politician needed to show a strong front as he takes on the role of France’s president.
Speaking to CNBC, Mr Derrick said: “We are starting to focus on the hard details of the negotiations over Brexit.
“It’s coming increasingly into focus ever since the European Commission set out its agenda last week. With Mr Macron coming in, he has a vested interest in presenting a hard line to the United Kingdom, particularly in the run up to the national assembly elections.
“I think that is presenting itself in sterling, I wouldn’t be surprised if sterling started to come under a degree of pressure.”
David Owen, chief European economist at Jefferies, supported Mr Derrick’s view Mr Macron would push for a hard-line with the UK as it prepares to leave the bloc.
He added France might decide to take a softer approach down the line, as he said creating a financial and economic cliff would also be bad for the European Union.
Mr Owen said: “Certainly over the next few weeks, running into the national assembly, Simon is absolutely right.
“I think on the two-year view it's going to take a slightly different spin, that maybe they come together and recognise a very hard Brexit is not in their interest in terms of the rest of the EU.
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With Mr Macron coming in, he has a vested interest in presenting a hard line
“[Marcon] can help drive that agenda, it should be an orderly exit. France needs to maintain very strong ties with the UK, as does the rest of the EU.
“The UK is due to leave the EU in 2020 if you are faced at that point with a financial and economic cliff, it’s not good for Europe in general, it’s not good for France and it’s certainly not good for the UK.”
The suggestion Emmanuel Macron could push for a hard-line Brexit comes as Iain Duncan Smith on Monday warned the centrist against trying to punish Britain for leaving the EU.
Speaking to talkRADIO the former Conservative leader said: “The reality is if you want to put French workers out of work who rely on exports to the UK, the quickest thing you can do is make this situation a drama.
“If you want, however, to do well - and [France] sells much more to us than we do to them, then you want to come to some sort of deal that allows them to access our markets.
“If you are a French farmer who sells huge amounts of your agricultural goods and they do, such as cheeses and everything else - the UK is an enormous market.
“Britain is the largest market for champagne in the world, we consume more of these things and British people like to buy them.
“If, however, they were to see tariff barriers go up, well the answer is [France] will suffer worse."