Iran-US tensions: 'Very high risk' of threats escalating into open warfare, warns expert
AN expert in weapons of mass destruction who predicted a war between the United States and Iran more than a decade ago has warned such a conflict cannot be ruled out after tensions between the two states appeared to soften.
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Dr Dan Plesch said after watching Washington and Tehran trade blows in recent weeks, he concluded the likelihood of all-out war is “very high” due to the “poor command and control” of the Americans contrasted with the Iranians’ “overconfidence”. The director of the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy at SOAS co-authored a paper in 2007 with Martin Butcher, international consultant on security politics, discussing how a US-Iran war would play out. Thirteen years on, in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s assassination of top Iranian military commander Qassen Soleimani, Dr Plesch said many people still fail to realise the full capacity of the beefed-up United States military when trying to make predictions.
Dr Plesch told Express.co.uk: “I am the boy who cried wolf about war with Iran, you can see going back more than 10 years. I put my hands up to that.
“But of course the punch line in the story of the boy who cried wolf is the wolf eventually turns up.”
He added: “On the American side, it’s a question of whether at some point the President decides to unleash the full power of the US armed forces.
“Their air forces and naval forces have barely been used in a war since 9/11, and yet have absorbed huge amounts of new weaponry and money.
“And against this, the Iranians are even more outclassed than Saddam [Hussein] was.
“So there is a complete over match, as the Americans would put it, between the US military and the Iranians.
“The Americans have ‘pret-a-manger’ war planning for the destruction of Iran."
He said while the Iran threat continues to dominate the headlines, the battle power of the US is less talked about and this has led people to believe Tehran is looking for a fight.
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After President Trump took out General Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad on January 3, Iran hit an Iraqi air base housing US troops with ballistic missiles.
While the president claimed no American personnel were hurt in the attacks, it later emerged 34 troops suffered traumatic brain injuries.
Mr Trump backed away from further military action, declaring, “Iran appears to be standing down.”
Dr Plesch said the Republican leader’s former national security adviser John Bolton will likely have taken flack for his failure to convince Mr Trump to deal with Iran in a more heavy-handed manner during his time in office.
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Mr Bolton, the famously hawkish member of Mr Trump’s administration, was fired last September after clashing with the president on Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea.
“We are very short of good options and I think there is a very high likelihood that we will see the destruction of Iran by the United States,” said Dr Plesch.
“And some people may say that’s a good thing. I beg to differ. It takes two to tango in any conflict so no one is getting out of this scot-free in the blame stakes.
“My point really is if you don’t want to see a broader war then we need to see efforts on both sides.
“Because the risks of a larger war are very high, not least because of the poor command and control and Iranian overconfidence.”
He added: “And people around John Bolton are mad he did not get Trump to do it. Now they say ‘we told you so… look at Iran’s actions’.”
Mr Bolton’s pro-war views are shared by many members of the younger generation, who have watched too many romantic war movies, said Dr Plesch.
He said the distorted sentiment also exists among leaders today, in stark contrast to their parents and grandparents who, having lived through the Second World War, have a more realistic view of conflict.
This, he said, means many political figures both in the UK and the US have “a false sense of confidence” in their country’s ability to fight and win a major war.
“I think there is a bombastic blowhard militarism amongst civilian leadership in this country and in the United States that the wartime generation did not have because they understood the score,” he said.
“And the overall danger, to be frank, is that the lessons of Express readers’ parents - the wartime generation understood the perils - have been replaced by a generation that have watched too many heroic war movies. It creates a false sense of confidence and military bombast.”