Iran attack: ‘Trigger happy’ Trump will only encourage Soleimani’s successors
DONALD Trump’s “trigger-happy” approach to Iran, as exemplified by the assassination of Major General Qassem Soleimani in Iraq, will simply stir up resentment in the Middle East in which those following in the military commander’s wake will “thrive”, a London-based academic has claimed.
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However, Dr Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, a Professor in Global Thought and Comparative Philosophies at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), downplayed the idea of the UK becoming a target for Iranian reprisals - provided Prime Minister Boris Johnson did not himself order military strikes. Thursday’s air strike in Baghdad killed Gen Soleimani, along with four others, including Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the Iraqi-Iranian commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) militia. Iran retaliated yesterday by firing more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two Iraqi air bases housing US forces yesterday, although US President Donald Trump later said the attack had not resulted in any casualties.
Sometimes reactionary leaders such as Donald Trump become hostage to fortune, captive of their own trigger-happy, macho politics that could bring about an unwanted war
Nevertheless, tensions in the region remain dramatically heightened, and with Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab saying the UK was considering pulling out of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal due to “acute” non-compliance, the prospect of Britain becoming involved in military action cannot be ruled out.
Meanwhile Lord West, the former First Sea Lord, earlier this week urged vigilance, telling Express.co.uk Iran may regard the UK as a “softer target” than the US.
Dr Adib-Moghaddam told Express.co.uk: “There won’t be any risks to the UK, if we don’t get embroiled in a military attack on Iran. Neither the United States, nor Iran are interested in a war.
“But sometimes reactionary leaders such as Donald Trump become hostage to fortune, captive of their own trigger-happy, macho politics that could bring about an unwanted war.
“Having said that, a closer analytical reading of the current consensus among the military establishment in the United States indicates that a war against Iran is not a priority.”
Tens of thousands of Iranians packed the streets of Tehran for Gen Soleimani’s funeral procession on Saturday, a fact which Dr Adib-Moghaddam said illustrated his status within Iran.
He explained: “General Soleimani was both the operational figurehead and charismatic symbol of Iranian strategic preferences in the region which are geared to three interdependent goals: preventing a “Saddam Hussein effect” in Syria and Iraq, ie minimising the appearance of yet another leader or movement that would invade Iran as Saddam Hussein did in 1980, with support of the Reagan administration and others.
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“Secondly, Iran has an interest in fighting terror groups such as al-Qaeda and Daesh, and it is in the battle with these groups that Soleimani’s legacy can be found, and which explains why his killing is not only mourned by millions of Iranians, but also Iraqis, Lebanese, Yemenis and as far afield as in Kashmir.
“Obviously, he was not a man of peace. He was a career soldier, a war hero to many because of his role in the liberation from Saddam Hussein’s forces of the Iranian town of Khorramshahr in 1983, a symbolic event celebrated in Iran until today.
“Thirdly, the adversarial policies of the Trump administration and the historical memory of US interference in Iranian affairs, reaffirmed the attitude of Iranians of Soleimani’s generation whose world-view was formed by war and conflict, that Iran needed to reduce the military footprint of the United States in the region.”
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After his death, Gen Soleimani was swiftly replaced as commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force by Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani - and Dr Adib-Moghaddam suggested he and others would be well-suited to the adversarial climate.
Dr Adib-Moghaddam explained: “Certainly, the Soleimanis of this world thrive within a context of conflict; the Trump administration served this framework perfectly, to the detriment of stability in the region and domestic politics in Iran itself, which will be securitised even further for the time being.
“In Iran he is a war hero and a national figure beyond politics, also because of his role in defending Iran’s borders during the Iran-Iraq war when Saddam Hussein invaded the country.
“He held a similar status among Iran’s allies because of his role in defeating ISIS in Iraq and Syria, which also required liaising with the US under the Obama administration.”
Dr Adib-Moghaddam also cast doubt on the justification which Mr Trump offered for the air strikes - and even suggested Gen Soleimani may have been tricked into travelling to Baghdad.
He said: “The narrative that Soleimani was in Iraq in order to order attacks on the US military has been negated by the Iraqi PM who insinuated that Soleimani was lured into Iraq by the US in order to be assassinated.
“Also Soleimani travelled in an overt way, on a chartered flight so the idea that this was some kind of James Bondian covert conspiracy to target US installations is a fabrication.
“As for the IEDs: there is no evidence that such orders came directly from Soleimani.
“The killing was illegal in accordance with international law as the UN representative indicated. There is no declaration of war between Iran and the US and the assassination was done without Iraqi approval on Iraqi soil.
“Imagine Iran killing a US general in Germany. This is what this amounts to.”