COMMENT: 'A more substantial offer on immigration will be needed'
'While Farage is a Marmite figure with the electorate, he is trusted by a substantial section of the Conservative party, for whom his message that they have been betrayed resonates.'
Compared to the minimal grey tech-bro hoodie of the prime minister and the monotone navy shirt with navy suit combo favoured by Keir Starmer, the shimmering blue butterfly tie worn by Nigel Farage as he announced his return to frontline politics marked an explosion of colour in this previously lacklustre general election.
Entirely supplanting the Liberal Democrats’ attempt to elbow their way into media coverage with adventure sports and watery larks, Farage has livened up the campaign both because he is genuinely charismatic and an electoral force.
As such, any policy announcement he makes has the potential to shift the behaviour of the other parties.
That will be especially important when it comes to immigration, the subject which bubbled away under the electoral success of UKIP in the last decade and which played a major role in the vote for Brexit.
Labour have been content to focus on illegal immigration, where almost the entire country is in agreement.
Promises to tackle bad bosses or improve the skills of British workers are largely irrelevant however, when the main sources of immigration are care workers, students and the humanitarian routes for Ukrainians, Hong Kongers and Afghans.
The Conservatives have clearly been spooked by Farage, rushing out the promise of a cap on migration.
The level would be set by the Migration Advisory Committee however, which means that the cap will only be as robust as the question they’re asked to answer.
Despite the widespread abuse of the Graduate visa by international students, a recent report on it by the MAC had to conclude that it had fulfilled its objectives.
That’s because the government had set a seemingly arbitrary target of 600,000 international students, which the route had met.
As the MAC admitted later, had the government asked a different question, such as whether the Graduate visa was being abused or whether it was a net financial benefit, then they might have come to a very different answer.
Trying to punt difficult questions off onto quangos shows the lack of Conservative confidence on the issue.
Rumours are now swirling that they will make a promise on the ECHR too, with the prime minister having previously hinted that he would leave it if needed to make sure the Rwanda Plan works.
The danger is that the Conservatives promise but don’t deliver and lose the trust of their voters even further. They’ve already admitted that no flights to Rwanda will take off until after the election. Offering an immigration cap while refusing to provide a number or promising to leave the ECHR but only after the election is therefore unlikely to make a difference.
In contrast, Reform’s promise of net-zero migration is memorable and seems robust.
Many voters might confuse it with a total freeze on immigration altogether, although with around half a million people leaving Britain every year, it could allow that number to migrate here.
Reform could deal with that through a programme of rapid economic growth, reducing British emigration for more prosperous climes and thereby restricting immigration at the same time.
While Farage is a Marmite figure with the electorate, he is trusted by a substantial section of the Conservative party, for whom his message that they have been betrayed resonates.
He’s quite openly seeking defections and warning that the Conservative brand is “ruined”.
While his plan to replace the Conservatives might be too ambitious, by dividing the right-wing vote he has the potential to cause the greatest electoral defeat in Conservative history. For both Labour and the Conservatives, a more substantial offer on immigration will be needed to shore up their vote.
