Nigel Farage backed by top pollster for bombshell Clacton election win - 'Got it sewn up!'

Nigel Farage has been backed by a leading pollster for a bombshell victory in Clacton at the general election. The Brexit architect yesterday took over as Reform UK leader and announced he would contest the Essex seat.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners Polls and ex-Downing Street pollster, said that Mr Farage looks set to win the constituency on July 4.

He told the Express: "I think he's got it sewn up. The Conservatives are in dire straits nationally, they're going to have a big hit to their vote in that seat regardless.

"Labour will spread any anti-Farage vote because they are strong in the country, they won't be strong enough to win Clacton, but that will pull in enough votes for them.

"Nigel Farage has chosen the seat for a reason, it's the one that most matches the demographics that Reform performs best on. I would say with quote some confidence that barring some serious change like a deal with the Tories then we're set for MP Farage."

Mr Johnson said the 60-year-old has "left a massive Farage-shaped crater in British politics" today following his stunning change of mind about standing in the general election. But he warned that Reform winning any other seats even with Mr Farage at the helm would be a "hard ask because breaking in as a new party is very difficult".

Mr Johnson said: "He's really going to do some damage to the Conservatives here. Unlike 2015 almost all of the Reform vote is from Conservative voters.

"Ukip pulled in votes from Labour as well, we're not seeing that this time round. Farage might change that, maybe he pulls in a few Labour voters, but broadly speaking this is very bad for the Tories.

"I expect that Reform doesn't suddenly surge, I don't think we're going to be in a world where Reform takes over the Conservatives or anything like that.

"In a general election smaller parties do get squeezed because the main parties say it's a choice between two prime ministers and therefore people will come back. I think what Farage being in the race does is make it much harder for the Tories to get Reform down from where it is now.

"In our most recent JL Partners poll we've got Reform on 12 percent. It's now hard to see how they get that down and really the Conservatives need to have that down below 10 percent or to be honest below five percent and it's very tricky to see how that now happens."

Mr Johnson went on: "One of the reasons that Farage firms up that Reform vote is that amongst Reform voters he's got a net approval rating of 79.

"Now for context that is higher than the King and it's also higher than the late Queen was viewed by the public as a whole. This is God-like ratings amongst current Reform voters."

Mr Johnson said Lee Anderson's Ashfield constituency is one to watch for Reform but added Labour could get in if the right-wing vote is split with the Tories.

He said: "My current expectation would be that happens in Ashfield and Labour comes through the middle but let's see it's certainly one of their hot seats for sure."