A vote for Reform means you get Labour’s open borders for decades
The fleeting moment of kicking the Tories while they're down will not be worth decades of regret under Labour, writes Dr Azeem Ibrahim
As we close in on election day, there are some signs that the Reform vote is tailing off slightly. The Conservatives are up three points and Reform down one point to 13%. If Reform voters switched to the Conservatives, the gap would be down to only 2% – within the margin of error. Starmer would almost certainly be denied a majority, let alone the supermajority he’s on track for.
At a time when Europe as a whole was starting to embrace offshore processing of asylum claims, and when the effectiveness of the Rwanda scheme was being proven by migrants cancelling crossings and heading to Ireland instead, why Britain, despite its crippling migration crisis, decided to vote to abandon it. It is quite possible that when Starmer cancels Rwanda, we become the only European country without such a scheme – and so become a magnet for the whole continent.
The same goes for the economy. Having so recently experienced high inflation (which, fortunately, is now back to target levels) why did Britain give Labour a majority so large that they could introduce even more costs and drive up prices? Labour plans to force companies to publish their carbon footprints and adopt net zero plans. We will feel this not just at the petrol pump or energy bills but in the supply chains of literally everything we buy.
With the benefit of hindsight – they will also know that it was this supermajority at the 2024 election that allowed Starmer to pass votes to 16-year-olds and EU citizens. Reform UK voters who thought they were voting for border control and low taxes ended up allowing the Labour Party to rig the electorate with children’s votes so no party that believed in low taxes or border controls could get elected for decades to come. It is a cruelty that right-wing voters will be shut out of politics for years.
Pollster Peter Kelner’s analysis has shown that Labour are going to win 100 extra seats because of Reform. With the new polling results, the costs of voting Reform could be even higher. The damage that Farage’s party will do to the Tories is undeniable. But that doesn’t mean that he will have any success at building something in its place. The prime beneficiary will be Labour and Sir Keir Starmer.
In right-wing seats that want less immigration and lower taxes, Labour will sneak in with 30% of the vote and will fail to represent their views in parliament. If some projections are to be believed, the Tories might only win seventy-six seats, with Reform winning 3. Labour will be completely unconstrained with 465 seats. There will be precious few voices arguing against tax rises, transgender wokery or free movement policies.
On the doorstep, some voters are determined to give the Tories a kicking. Even Sunak himself agreed last month that he has failed to control Britain’s borders in an interview with Nick Robinson.
They are certainly going to achieve that – some three hundred Tories might be unemployed by the end of the week. But that fleeting moment of catharsis, of kicking the Tories while they’re down, will not be worth decades of regret under Labour. The polls say some are realising what’s at stake. But it looks like it may be too late.
