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Premier League table: How standings should look based on Expected Goals – Liverpool fourth
Liverpool are currently eight points clear at the top of the Premier League, but the Reds were not expected to have been so successful based on Expected Goals statistics.
Liverpool have enjoyed a perfect start to the Premier League season, winning their opening eight matches to build a significant lead at the top of the table.
Jurgen Klopp’s side are currently eight points clear of reigning champions Manchester City after a blistering start to the campaign which included wins over Arsenal and Chelsea.
But new data from Infogol suggests the Reds are exceeding expectations based on their on-field performances and should be trailing some of their rivals in the table.
The latest study has generated expected current positions for every top-flight side, as well as their predicted finishing positions at the end of the campaign.
Infogol have used their unique algorithm to quantify the quality of any given scoring opportunity, giving each chance a probability of being scored.
The higher the probability, the better the chance, so the ‘Expected Goals’ method provides a descriptive look back at individual games and helps give an insight into future performance.
So while Liverpool are predicted to finish top of the Premier League at the end of the season, their performances so far were only expected to put them fourth.
Manchester United are currently 12th after their worst start to a league campaign in 30 years, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side have created enough chances to be up in third.
Manchester City have been most threatening so far this season while Chelsea should also have gained more points than Liverpool, based on the Infogol algorithm.
Meanwhile, Tottenham are languishing in the relegation zone based on Expected Goals so have done well to sit ninth in the table despite just two wins in their latest seven matches.
West Ham have also gained more points than expected while Leicester are exceeding expectations with the Foxes currently fourth.
Brighton should be sixth based on the Expected Goals algorithm while rock-bottom Watford are expected to be up in 15th but have found the net just four times this season.
How Premier League table should look based on Expected Goals
20. Norwich City
19. Newcastle United
18. Tottenham Hotspur
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17. West Ham United
16. Sheffield United
15. Watford
14. Aston Villa
13. Bournemouth
12. Crystal Palace
11. Burnley
10. Leicester City
9. Everton
8. Arsenal
7. Wolverhampton Wanderers
6. Brighton & Hove Albion
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5. Southampton
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4. Liverpool
3. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
1. Manchester City