North Korea crisis: Rogue state ‘likely to test nuke over the PACIFIC’ by end of 2018
NORTH Korea will test more nuclear and ballistic missiles this year and could be planning to demonstrate the full force of its deadly arsenal by detonating a nuke over the Pacific by the end of 2018, a geopolitics expert has predicted.
Kim Jong-un is likely to continue his relentless pursuit of bigger and more powerful weapons by firing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) over Japan as well as launching submarine-based rockets, Rodger Baker said.
And he warned there was a “relatively high potential” the rogue state would finish its 2018 test cycle with a nuclear explosion somewhere over the Pacific.
Mr Baker, vice president for strategic analysis at geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor, said the North’s current willingness to work with its neighbours in the South for the sake of the Winter Olympics was likely “just a pause” in hostilities.
Talking during a presentation entitled ‘top geopolitical risks for 2018’, he said: “We do not believe they are done for their nuclear and missile test cycle for this year.
There is still a relatively high potential of the North Koreans... carrying out a live nuclear test over the Pacific
“We do see them testing at least a few more submarine-launched ballistic missiles, maybe one or two of the ICBMs, probably over Japan again to truly test re-entry and targeting capacity.
“And there is still a relatively high potential of the North Koreans finishing the demonstration of their deterrent by carrying out a live nuclear test over the Pacific.”
Up until now, all of North Korea’s nuclear tests have taken place underground, away from the prying eyes of spy planes and surveillance satellites at the Punggye-ri facility.
The subterranean test site has been used by the Kim dynasty to test six bombs, with the most recent in September 2017 believed to be a hugely destructive hydrogen bomb.
And because none of the detonations have been observed, analysts from neighbouring countries have relied on measuring shockwaves caused by the blast to calculate their destructive power.
But a live test over the Pacific Ocean, like the kind carried out by the United States in the decades following World War Two at the height of the Cold War, would force the world to recognise Kim’s regime as a nuclear power - something President Donald Trump has refused to accept.
And the testing of more ICBMs is likely to raise tensions further, as well as increasing the possibility of conflict breaking out due to miscalculation.
The last time Kim launched one of his long-range missiles over Japan, terrified residents on the northernmost island of Hokkaido woke up to air raid sirens as the rocket blasted miles overhead.
But if the weapon malfunctioned and exploded in-flight, it could cause debris to fall over Japanese towns and cities.
Asked what should be made of the apparent “calming” of the crisis on the Korean Peninsula, Mr Baker said: “I would just take the dialogue over the Olympics as dialogue over the Olympics and as the North and South Koreans doing little small things for confidence-building measures.
“But the North Koreans have very specifically kept the nuclear aspect out.
“Just because there is a talk, it doesn’t mean the US is stopping preparation or easing off.
“That preparation is still going - we’ve just added new bombers to Guam.”