Full list of UK food and drink that could RUN OUT this summer – from chicken to beer

Britain could be hit by shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket staples this summer if tensions in Iran continue to escalate, a confidential Government assessment has revealed. Officials are drawing up emergency plans amid fears that disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a major shortage of carbon dioxide (CO2) - a gas vital to the UK food supply chain.

Senior figures from No 10, the Treasury and the Ministry of Defence have been involved in behind-the-scenes planning exercises, codenamed "Exercise Turnstone", examining how industry would cope under a “reasonable worst-case scenario”. The scenario assumes the key shipping route remains closed into June with no peace deal in place, raising concerns about supply chains and rising costs. CO2 plays a crucial role in keeping food fresh and in meat production, being used in the processing of most pigs and more than two-thirds of chickens. With limited supplies available, sectors like farming and hospitality are expected to be among the hardest hit.

CO2 is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods. Although the Government has stockpiles, this was said not to be a long-term solution.

Breweries could also face disruption, with the gas essential for carbonating drinks, sparking fears of shortages during major summer events, including the start of the World Cup in June.

Ministers are said to be prioritising supplies for healthcare and nuclear energy, amid warnings that CO2 shortages could pose serious risks, according to The Times. The gas is needed to produce dry ice used in transporting blood, organs and vaccines, as well as supporting parts of the energy system.

The contingency planning forms part of wider preparations for a prolonged conflict and its knock-on effects on the UK economy, including energy prices. The reasonable worst-case scenario assumed that CO2 supplies could fall to 18% of current levels. This was predicated on a key UK plant suffering a mechanical error and on high natural gas costs, leading to a fall in ammonia (NH3) and fertiliser production across Europe, from which CO2 is a by-product.

To counter this, the Government is considering emergency measures to boost output, including asking factories to switch production to CO2 and even introducing fast-tracked legislation to enforce cooperation under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, which gives ministers temporary powers to respond to national emergencies. Ministers are also weighing whether to offer compensation for businesses affected by production changes.

Last month, ministers announced that the Ensus plant in Teesside would be restarted for three months to maintain a resilient CO2 supply.

Government insiders stressed that the scenario was not a prediction but part of normal Whitehall planning. In 2022, energy price shocks led to some CO2 shortages.

The Government said: "Reasonable worst-case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events."

Full list of food and drinks that could run out this summer

1. Chicken
2. Pork
3. Salad
4. Packaged meats
5. Baked goods
6. Fizzy/ carbonated drinks