Putin plotting to attack NATO in months, warn experts: 'The numbers do not lie'

Vladimir Putin could escalate his confrontation with the West by targeting towns or cities in NATO countries within months, according to military experts who have warned that Russia is already testing the alliance's response.

Russian cruise missiles have landed in Poland, while drones have flown into Romania, amid growing concern over the Kremlin's actions towards European allies.

The warnings come as Russia struggles to secure the battlefield gains it seeks in Ukraine and analysts consider whether Putin intends to take more aggressive action against NATO members in the short term.

Philip Ingram, a former British Army colonel, told the Daily Mail: "Putin is already striking Europe and NATO on a weekly basis. It is no accident we are seeing drones with explosives at a German airport in Leipzig, unidentified drones over German, Danish and US military bases, and some critical infrastructure sites.

"It is no accident we have seen Russian fighters in Baltic countries' airspace and Russian attack drones in Poland.

"It is no accident that undersea cables are being surveilled or cut by shadow fleet shipping dragging anchors.

"Almost daily cyber attacks, reports of spying, and unexplained sabotage are all likely to be Putin attacking us."

NATO's 32 members are expected to come to each other's defence under Article 5 of the treaty that created the alliance.

The provision treats an attack on any member state as an attack on them all.

Mr Ingram predicted Russian attacks "will probably increase", arguing that Putin is pushing the threshold for an Article 5 response to its "political limit".

One theory circulating among analysts is that Putin could attempt to seize a city or region in Poland or one of the three Baltic states.

All three Baltic states are NATO members and have strongly backed Ukraine.

British former Army officer Hamish de Bretton-Gordon said the Russian leader might consider a "small incursion" into Latvia or Estonia, adding that he is "already targeting us with hybrid warfare - cyber and espionage".

Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have all strengthened their border defences against Russia and close ally Belarus.

The Baltic states also rank among NATO's highest defence spenders in relative terms.

Lithuania directs 5.3 percent of GDP to defence, the most of NATO's 32 members.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda recently warned: "I cannot deny that we have such information and that it concerns kinetic operations.

"Not on a large scale, but targeted kinetic operations that are very likely to be directed against critical infrastructure."

NATO members believe Putin is already conducting probing attacks to test and fracture the alliance, states the Daily Mail report.

The concern comes amid a series of incidents involving Russian drones and Western airspace.

Western fighter jets have been scrambled three times in the last few weeks to shoot down drones, while Ukraine recently intercepted a drone that had earlier crossed into Romanian airspace.

The number of fighter jet scrambles increased by more than 250 per cent in July compared with a year ago, as Russia continues to probe the West's defences.

The sharp rise in the monthly figure compared with July 2025 highlights Putin's aggressive stance.

"The numbers do not lie," said a post by NATO's Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum.

Washington also warned last month that the Kremlin could be planning an armed incursion on Polish land to test NATO's response.

The reported plan could involve Putin's troops crossing into Poland, with vital infrastructure potentially targeted by missiles and drones.

Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki told news outlet Onet that the US had been warning Warsaw about the plan for a while.

The reported aim of Russia's plan is to create a crisis that would frighten Western nations into ending their support for Ukraine.

Polish security experts have also warned that Russia and Belarus might send a small number of troops across the NATO border.

Power stations could be targeted during such an incursion through air strikes that would force Poland to activate its air defence systems.

Moscow's strategy relies on the assumption that the US would compel Poland to negotiate rather than engage militarily.

Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), believes the most likely method Putin would use against NATO allies is a "hybrid attack that falls below the Article 5 threshold".

Seskuria said: "Moscow has already deployed a range of such tactics, including sabotage operations, repeated violations of NATO airspace, and sophisticated cyberattacks, to probe allied resolve and map the practical limits of the alliance's response.

"This strategy has so far proved efficient for the Kremlin because it allows Russia to test NATO's crisis response mechanisms and gather valuable intelligence on how radar networks, air defence systems, and political decision-making chains function under such crises, without triggering a conventional military reaction that would impose serious costs on Moscow.

"The Baltic states and Poland have been at the forefront of this hybrid campaign, repeatedly serving as testing grounds for drone incursions, GPS jamming, suspected damage to undersea cables, and other hybrid provocations.

"As the war in Ukraine drags on with no clear end in sight, it is likely that Russia will escalate these non-military tactics further, aiming to intimidate NATO members, exhaust frontline societies, and weaken public and political support for long-term assistance to Kyiv.

"The recent incident at Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport marks a qualitative escalation and indicates that Moscow is willing to increase its hybrid pressure."

Mr Ingram agrees that the Russian dictator will "stop at anything" that might invoke Article 5.

But "that won't stop him pushing to the very political limit of where that Article 5 threshold is," he added.

"He knows it isn't accurately defined and will depend on the political landscape. A landscape he is manipulating on a daily basis for his own ends."

The warnings come as the war continues to produce lethal attacks on both Russian and Ukrainian territory.

A Ukrainian drone strike on Monday killed at least 13 people, including Central Asian nationals and a child, and wounded 39 others in the Russian city of Nizhnekamsk.

It was one of the heaviest civilian tolls in Russia in months.

Ukraine's military said it had struck Tatneft's TANECO oil refinery in the Tatarstan region, about 800 km (497 miles) east of Moscow.

It added that a fire was recorded at the facility.

Russian investigators said they had opened a criminal case into what they qualified as a terrorist attack.

In a statement, they said Ukraine had struck residential areas and that a child was among those civilians killed.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the strike had hit industrial facilities and residential buildings and accused Kyiv of deliberately attacking civilians.

Ukraine and Russia have repeatedly said they do not target civilians.

Seven Uzbek citizens were among those killed in Nizhnekamsk, the Uzbek consulate in Kazan said.

A Tajik citizen was also killed, Russian state news agency TASS cited the Tajik foreign ministry as saying.

Russian state news agency RIA said nine out of 13 victims were in a hostel at the time of the strike, citing the press office of the head of the region.

Videos verified by Reuters on social media showed smoke rising over the oil refinery.

The TANECO refinery was also hit by Ukraine in early June.

It processed 17 million metric tons of crude oil in 2024, producing 2.7 million tons of gasoline and 8.5 million tons of diesel fuel.

Ukraine has stepped up its strikes on Russian oil refineries in recent months.

The campaign has caused fuel shortages in many parts of Russia, although authorities say most of those initial problems have since been resolved.

Ukraine says it wants to bring the price of Russia's war home to ordinary Russians.

Moscow has imported fuel from overseas to help bolster supplies.

On Sunday, both sides again accused each other of lethal attacks.

Three people were killed and 37 wounded in a Russian attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, where a multi-story apartment block was hit.

Meanwhile, authorities in Russia's Belgorod said five were killed and 25 wounded by a Ukrainian drone attack.