VENEZUELA - why today's elections matter to the West

MILLIONS of Venezuelans are expected to choose to eject President Nicolas Maduro from power as the country faces presidential elections today.

Such a move would mark another crucial blow to Latin America’s so-called “pink tide”, which was already challenged last year when right-wing populist Javier Milei secured the presidency in Argentina.

And, crucially, it may return what once the South Amerca's wealtniest nation to the Western fold, after years of dangerous influence -peddling by Russia and China.

But Maduro, who took charge after the death of his socialist mentor Hugo Chavez 11 years ago, is unlikely to willingly concede defeat in seeking a third term.

Already, steps such as using state funds for electioneering, blocking votes from abroad, barring an opposition favourite from running and banning independent foreign observers from entering Venezuela suggest these will not be fair elections.

And only two weeks ago Maduro himself told a rally that there could be a “civil war” if he does not secure a victory.

Latest polls show Maduro, 61, trailing 74-year-old Edmundo Gonzalez by nearly 40 points - with just 12.5 percent support for the incumbent compared with 59.6 percent for the opposition leader.

This could spell the end of the socialist experiment started by Chavez in 1999 - which has seen oil-rich Venezuela’s once prosperous economy plummet, triggering hyperinflation and the exodus of more than 8 million citizens fleeing poverty.

Families now need around $500 per month to live, while the minimum wage languishes at $130 per month, thigh some critics say US sanctions, levied in response to alleged human rights abuses and democratic backsliding, are also to blame.

Significantly, it could also cause Venezuela to embrace the West once more, after years of heavy Russian and Chinese influence.

In Moscow, Vladimir Putin has been watching events in Venezuela unfold.

Venezuela has provided Russia with diplomatic support over its invasion of Ukraine, with Maduro criticising Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy while accusing Western countries of feeding the conflict.

Russia sent two warships to visit Venezuela earlier this month following a stop in Cuba, and Moscow also has warm ties with Nicaragua. Critics say such shows of force are aimed to emphasise that Russia has friends in the region.

A win for Gonzalez, therefore, would severely threaten Russia’s power projection across Latin America just when Putin needs more leverage against Washington DC.

"Much as Russia sees the United States encroaching on its own sphere of influence with Nato expansion in Eastern Europe, it sees the opportunity to do the exact same by fortifying partnerships with its historical and authoritarian allies in Latin America, namely Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela," said Henry Ziemer, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

China's relationship with Venezuela - described "foolproof and weatherproof" - is much more transactional. China is a major player in Venezuela's oil and gas sector, as well as being the OPEC country's largest creditor.

In 2007 it reached a £40bn agreement for credit lines and loans-for-oil deals with then-leader Hugo Chavez, and is currently owed £8bn in defaulted debt repayments - money Beijing wants back.

"A restoration of proper democracy in Venezuela will be an important beacon regionally, but would also end the Chavista policies of cozying up to the world’s worst regimes like Russia, China and Iran, which will be welcomed by the entire Free World," said Dr Alan Mendoza of the Henry Jackson Society think tank last night.

But whatever the results of today’s elections, they won’t be instantaneous.

“If the vote favours Gonzalez he will need to negotiate Maduro's exit plan, providing assurances on how they can exit the political stage without ending up in jail or losing all their resources," warned Prof Victor Bulmer-Thomas of the Institute of the Americas, University College London. "This could take weeks.”

The outcome of the presidential vote will also not alter the makeup of Venezuela’s congress, where the pro-Maduro PSUV coalition still holds power.

Like Milei in Argentina, Gonzalez may be forced to compromise some of his right-wing agenda.

“He is a former diplomat, so he may find building bridges easy“, said Prof Bulmer-Thomas.

“Compromise actually helped Milei by forcing him to shed some of his more radical ideas to become more effective.”

But unlike Milei, Gonzalez is thought not to be little more than a front man for Corina Machado, whom Maduro barred from running in the presidential election after she overwhelmingly won the opposition primary.

Machado, 56, went to boarding school in Massachusetts and attended the World Fellows Program at Yale University in 2009, one year before the late Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny.

She periodically visited Washington until the government prohibited her from leaving Venezuela.

A free-market advocate, Machado has called for privatising state assets and opening up Venezuela's economy to investment and has indicated she would like to bolster ties with the United States.

Prof Bulmer-Thomas added: “It would be unwise to assume that one election defeat, on the back of a situation which is indefensible for the government, means the socialist cause in Venezuela is lost forever.

"We remember when Violeta Chamorro won In Nicaragua, defeating the Sandositas in 1990; everyone said it was the end of Nicaragua’s social dream. Then, six years later they were back, and Daniel Ortega has remained in power ever since.”

He added: “Having said that, Maduro does not have the charisma of Chavez or even Ortega, so if there is to be a return of socialism in Venezuela, it probably won’t be with him as leader.

“This makes it much more complicated.”