Weather expert predicts when 30C 'super heatwave' will hit - but Brits will have to wait

A scorching "super heatwave" with temperatures in excess of 30C has been forecast by a weather expert. But Brits might be left disappointed to find out there's a bit of a wait, with Exacta Weather's James Madden revealing a major heatwave is "on target" for mid-summer.

He said: "Our earlier high-confidence forecast for a major heatwave or super heatwave is still on target to develop in or around mid-July for the UK and Ireland, and temperatures could still reach as high as the mid to high 30C mark at the peak of this."

Mr Madden told the Mirror Exacta Weather had correctly predicted forecasts for summer 2018, which he identified as the joint hottest on record, weeks in advance.

Meteorologists warn long range weather predictions are not like weather forecasts, which usually apply to the next few days.

The Met Office says it's not possible to predict the weather on a particular day months or years ahead due to the nature of the planet's atmosphere.

It does, however, say that factors in the global weather system may make some outcomes likelier than others, meaning it is possible to make a prediction, although forecasters still show a "spread of outcomes" is possible.

BBC Weather reports that for the moment it seems "fairly likely" this summer will be warmer than average, but rain is also expected.

The first half of June looks set to remain cooler and showery, according to BBC Weather, which warns forecasting beyond that timescale "is fraught with difficulty".

Netweather's Senior Forecaster Nick Finnis said one of the first things weather experts look at when trying to build a seasonal forecast is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

The warm phase of ENSO, El Niño, has added extra warmth to the earth's atmosphere. Last year's being the hottest year on record was "boosted" by El Niño conditions combined with mad-made climate changez, according to Mr Finnis.

That warmth has continued into this year, though El Niño has weakened and the likely arrival of a cooling phase known as La Nina "doesn't necessarily mean" there won't be more record-breaking warmth in 2024.

Mr Finnis said: "Most signals point to a warmer-than-average summer is most likely, perhaps not record-breaking heat like 2022, but that doesn’t mean we may not see one or two spells with high temperatures perhaps reaching the mid-30s."

Weather maps had suggested parts of the UK would see up to 26C on June 13, with London possibly seeing a high of 28C in or around that date. But the latest maps from WX Charts now show maximum temperatures in the mid-teens across much of the UK on that date.

BBC Weather points to a "warmer trend" up to June 16, with conditions "rather changeable" in the third week of June.

Met Office UK five day weather forecast

Today

A band of showers across Northern Ireland and central Scotland will gradually move southeastwards today. To the north a continuation of sunshine and blustery showers, with many southern areas dry with sunny spells. Feeling cool in the brisk breeze.

Tonight

Further blustery showers across the north, most frequent across northwestern Scotland. Mainly dry elsewhere, but rather cloudy across central and western areas. Turning chilly in the east under clear skies.

Saturday

Band of cloud and showers across central areas easing away throughout the day. Otherwise a mix of sunny spells and scattered showers, these frequent and blustery across the north.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday

Remaining cool and showery throughout Sunday and Monday, with the potential for a more prolonged spell of rain for a time in the northwest. Drier in the west on Tuesday.