Coronavirus lockdown warning: Brutal reality of second viral outbreak exposed
CORONAVIRUS has sparked lockdowns across the world, and as the UK reached the peak of its epidemic, calls for restrictions to be lifted may prove to be premature, as was the case in Montreal's 1885 smallpox outbreak.
Chris Whitty suggests social distancing could last for a year
As scientific advisors and cabinet ministers confirmed, the UK has reached the peak of its coronavirus epidemic. Both Dominic Raab and the health secretary Matt Hancock said the UK was now “at the peak” of the outbreak during a Commons briefing.
Mr Hancock added that the stringent lockdown and social distancing methods were working, and explained “It is making a difference. We are at the peak.”
Their comments were backed up by England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, who several days ago said the country was “probably reaching the peak overall”.
The Government was already facing pressure to lift some restrictions, the news that the peak has passed likely to spark further resistance to the lockdown.
Added to this is the easing of measures across Europe.
Germany, the Czech Republic, Norway prepared to lift some restrictions earlier this week, while businesses in Italy and Austria have been allowed to reopen.
Yet, during Wednesday evening's daily coronavirus briefing, Prof Whitty said it was “wholly unrealistic” to expect life would suddenly return to normal soon.
In the long run, he said, the ideal way out would be one of two things; either a "highly effective vaccine" or drugs to treat the disease and prevent deaths.
The chances of having either one of these things in the next calendar year, he warned, was "incredibly small".
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At the briefing, he said: "This disease is not going to be eradicated, it is not going to disappear.
"So we have to accept that we are working with a disease that we are going to be with globally... for the foreseeable future."
His words run parallel to the events that unfolded during Montreal’s 1885 smallpox epidemic.
The floodwaters broke, and on June 1, 1885, there were only a dozen smallpox patients in the disease’s designated hospital, and no new cases at all.
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In the summer months, religious festivals were the flagship events in Montreal, and processions were organised to welcome home Canadian soldiers who had been fighting in the west of the country, subduing rebellions.
Michael Bliss, an author and historian, explained during an interview in the 2010 documentary ‘Outbreak: Anatomy of a Plague’, the extent to which lapsed isolation and restrictions stirred a second outbreak.
He said: “The big event in the summer of 1885 was when Buffalo Bill appeared with his Wild West show, everybody had to go and see that.
“You can imagine the little children pleading with their mothers ‘Oh my spots are just about gone’.
“Every one of these gatherings becomes a cauldron for the fires of smallpox to spread a little bit further.”
The richest members of Montreal’s population packed their bags and travelled up river to their grand summer mansions or went on boat trips.
Meanwhile, back in the city, the cramped working class areas experienced a surge in cases and subsequent smallpox deaths.
By mid-July, the number of dead was close to 200, with a further 400 infected.
This was the point in which the epidemic started to gather momentum.
In the end, nearly all of Montreal's populace caught the virus, and 5,864 people died.
The likelihood of a second outbreak of coronavirus after such restrictions are relaxed is as of yet uncertain.
But, in China, the country of the virus’ origin, the north-eastern city of Harbin has experienced a cluster of new coronavirus cases that has forced authorities to impose new lockdowns.
It broke China’s run of weeks of reporting near zero domestic transmissions, and illustrated the present and unpredictable risk of a resurgence.