Will Jeremy Corbyn quit as Labour leader? Latest odds and predictions
LABOUR’s humiliating defeat in the Copeland by-election is a blow for embattled party leader Jeremy Corbyn. But could he quit?
Corbyn under pressure after disastrous by-election result
Mr Corbyn has stressed his determination to stay on as Labour leader despite Labour losing the Cumbrian seat of Copeland to the Conservatives for the first time in more than 80 years.
"I was re-elected Labour leader five months ago with a bigger majority and I am determined to finish that job: to reconnect Labour with our working class voters and values so we can win power to rebuild and transform Britain, for the many, not just the few," he wrote in the Sunday Mirror.
The historic Tory victory in the Copeland by-election last week marked the first time that a governing party has won a by-election since 1982.
The result was a “disaster” for the Mr Corbyn wing of the Labour Party, according to Justin Fisher, professor of political science at Brunel University.
“The party is clearly losing its battle in seats where you have got voters who could swing across the political spectrum,” he said.
But Copeland defeat may ironically bring some benefit to Mr Corbyn’s opponents within the Labour Party, Professor Fisher said.
“It’s clear evidence that as long as the Corbyn leadership is in position, Labour doesn’t have a prayer in marginal seats in the next election,” he added.
Asked if Mr Corbyn could now quit as Labour leader, Professor Fisher said: “Not immediately. I would be very surprised in the short term.
“I imagine that he would only do so if he felt there was a successor of whom he approved lined up.”
With no clear successor in place and unwavering support from allies like John McDonnell and Diane Abbott, Mr Corbyn looks unlikely to quit just yet.
But Professor Fisher also noted that the decision was not necessarily up to Mr Corbyn - just as Claudio Ranieri had no choice over his sacking by Leicester.
After the Copeland defeat last night, Mr Corbyn is now odd-on (1/3) to stand down this year, according to bookmaker Paddy Power.
A Paddy Power spokesman said: “It’s not the first time that there’s been speculation over Corbyn’s future, but this is certainly the most fervent – and I’m not sure he can Cope-land with the fall-out.
“There will be one resolute group of supporters desperate for him to remain in position, though – members of the Conservative Party.”
Mr Corbyn faced a vote of no confidence among MPs and calls to resign in the summer after his only lukewarm support for Remain during the EU referendum campaign.
But his defeat of pro-EU leadership rival Owen Smith in the ensuing leadership election showed that he still has strong support among Labour supporters and activists.
Despite losing in Copeland last night, Labour managed to hang on to its Stoke-on-Trent seat by defeating Ukip leader Paul Nutgall in the by-election.
Mr Corbyn tweeted: “Labour's victory in Stoke is a decisive rejection of UKIP's politics of division. But our message was not enough to win through in Copeland.
“To win power to rebuild and transform Britain, Labour will go further to reconnect with voters and break with the failed political consensus.
To win power to rebuild and transform Britain, Labour will go further to reconnect with voters and break with the failed political consensus
— Jeremy Corbyn MP (@jeremycorbyn) February 24, 2017
Labour's victory in Stoke is a decisive rejection of UKIP's politics of division. But our message was not enough to win through in Copeland
— Jeremy Corbyn MP (@jeremycorbyn) February 24, 2017
Here are the latest odds on Mr Corbyn’s leadership, according to Paddy Power as of 1pm on Sunday February 26.
When will Corbyn stand down?
7/4 - Q1, 2017
3/1 - Q2, 2017
5/1 - Q3, 2017
10/1 - Q4, 2017
7/4 - 2018 or later
Who will leave their job first?
1/2 - Jeremy Corbyn
6/4 - Arsene Wenger