Next Prime Minister latest odds – and there's a clear favourite to replace Keir Starmer
The shift in odds reflects growing speculation that Sir Keir's position has become untenable after Labour suffered devastating defeats across England.
Betting markets have revealed that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is the clear favourite to become the UK's next prime minister amid mounting pressure on Sir Keir Starmer. Bookmakers report Mr Burnham leading the field for the role of next prime minister after Sir Keir, with odds shortening to around 2/1 at major firms such as William Hill and Paddy Power.
Angela Rayner, the Deputy Prime Minister, has drifted to around 10/3, while Health Secretary Wes Streeting sits at 5/1. Other contenders, including Nigel Farage at 11/2 and Ed Miliband at 8/1, trail further back. The shift in odds reflects growing speculation that Sir Keir's position has become untenable after Labour suffered devastating defeats across England, losing control of dozens of councils and more than 1,100 seats.
Reform UK made major gains, particularly in traditional Labour heartlands, while the Greens also advanced on the left. Results in Scotland and Wales compounded the gloom for the governing party.
Starmer sought to steady the ship on Monday with a speech in London, vowing to "prove the doubters wrong," tackle economic and security challenges, nationalise remaining British Steel assets, and build closer ties with the European Union.
He acknowledged public frustration but framed the contest as a "battle for the soul of our nation," warning against a potential Reform UK government under Nigel Farage.
The address failed to quell dissent. In the hours that followed, a steady stream of Labour MPs — including ministerial aides in what appeared to be a coordinated effort — publicly called for Sir Keir to resign, either immediately or by September.
More than 60 of Labour's 403 MPs have reportedly urged him to set a departure date. They cited the loss of public confidence and the absence of a clear recovery plan.
Critics within the party pointed to repeated policy U-turns, struggles with economic growth, strained public services and controversies such as the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington.
Angela Rayner, while stopping short of demanding Sir Keir's immediate exit, criticised a "toxic culture of cronyism" and called for a return to core Labour values on the cost of living.
High-profile figures such as Ms Rayner, Mr Streeting, and Mr Burnham himself have not yet openly declared challenges, but Mr Burnham's stock has risen sharply.
Reports suggest he is considering a return to Westminster, with backing from sections of the party seeking a fresh face with strong northern appeal and local Government credibility. Prediction markets like Polymarket also show Mr Burnham leading probabilities for next PM.
British rules allow parties to replace leaders mid-term without triggering a General Election, keeping the door open for a contest.
Sir Keir's allies argue that changing prime ministers less than two years after a landslide victory would be destabilising, but the scale of last week's losses — interpreted as a de facto referendum on his leadership — has accelerated talk of transition.
With King Charles III due to outline the government's legislative agenda on Wednesday, attention remains fixed on whether Starmer can regain momentum or if the growing revolt will force his hand.
Betting markets suggest punters increasingly believe the latter, with Mr Burnham positioned as the clear frontrunner to steer Labour through turbulent times ahead of the next General Election.
