Experts sound alarm over horror carnage to unfold in days after early prison release

Criminals being let out of prison early will almost certainly reoffend within days, ministers have been warned.

Around 1,700 inmates are being released on Tuesday in an attempt to ease overcrowding behind bars.

But prison and probation experts have warned thugs and sex offenders – including those jailed for domestic abuse offences – will be among those back out on the streets.

They warned convicts will be coming “in and out” of the system because they will be homeless, effectively sofa-surfing, without support for things like alcohol or drug addiction.

And some may exploit the opportunity to wreak havoc again, with womens’ groups warning domestic abuse victims are among those most at risk.

Mark Fairhurst, Chair of the Prison Officers’ Association, said: “Someone will come out and immediately re-offend. It’s almost a dead certainty. You can see it coming.

“I think this scheme will give us 12 months. But we’ve got to come up with a long-term solution.

“We have to reduce the prison population.

“The important thing is what we do with them when they are inside. They are going to be our neighbours one day. Do we want them coming out feeling as though they’ve been treated well, or coming out fighting against everything?”

Mr Fairhurst suggested more criminals could be put under surveillance through tagging and that the 10,000 foreign national offenders currently in UK prisons should be deported.

And he stressed rehabilitation and training should form a vital part of inmates' time behind bars to prevent them being locked up for 23 hours a day.

Under the Government’s emergency scheme, some offenders will be released after serving just 40% of their custodial term.

The Ministry of Justice has insisted criminals convicted of violent and sexual offences will be excluded from the scheme.

But probation experts have warned the Ministry of Justice is only considering the “final” offence someone has been convicted of, meaning those serving “consecutive sentences” for violent, sexual or domestic abuse offences could be among the cohort released today.

Ian Lawrence, General Secretary of NAPO, the trade union for probation staff, said: “It is quite clear a lot of those people will be returned to prison.

“A lot of people will be coming in and out of the system.”

Mr Lawrence warned this will be because many of those set to be released may not be able to satisfy probation requirements for a settled home and may effectively be sofa-surfing.

But the probation officer admitted the mass release on Tuesday “will not be without risk”.

He added: “There could be incidents.”

And fury has erupted over the failure to tell some victims that criminals are set to be released from prison.

Victims' Commissioner Baroness Newlove blasted: "It is also imperative that anyone who breaches their licence conditions must be immediately recalled to custody, regardless of pressures on prison population. This is vital for public safety and to reassure victims.

"Clear and timely communication with victims is crucial to building trust and confidence. From the beginning, I sought assurances that all impacted victims would be informed of any early release dates, affording them the opportunity to request protective measures.

"I understand this has not been possible in every case, leaving some victims unaware of their offender's early release. While I recognise the challenges in reaching certain groups of victims, this is regrettable and must be addressed.

"As Victims' Commissioner, I am concerned about the impact of these early releases on victims' confidence in our justice system. It is essential that transparency and rigorous oversight guide our approach. Victim safety must remain the absolute priority.

"We now owe it to victims to ensure we swiftly steer our justice system towards more sustainable footing."

Ministry of Justice sources warned prison bosses are perilously close to triggering emergency measures to use police cells – Operation Early Dawn and Operation Brinker.

A No 10 spokeswoman said: "As the Prime Minister said this weekend, no prime minister should be in a position where there are not enough prison places.

"That is why we took the immediate decision that we did. And without doing so, prisons would have completely run out of places, and we faced unchecked criminality on our streets with police unable to make arrests."

She added: "This is another difficult, tough, but necessary action that we've taken.

"The approach that the Government's taken is to ensure that we have safeguards in place so that we can protect the public, and we also recognise how incredibly difficult this will be for victims, and most importantly, under the release plans - which must be in place for every prisoner leaving - under those plans, victims will be told ahead of time. That is important.

"There are also exemptions to ensure that offenders for violent and serious offences are not eligible for release under the scheme.

"Similarly, everyone must be released with a release plan that includes having somewhere to live once they leave prison and support to find work."

Domestic abuse charities warned that the scheme may come at the expense of women and children's safety, while others raised concerns that it would push probation services to breaking point.

Jessica Eagelton, head of policy and public affairs at Refuge, said: "As it stands, the early release exemption list will not include all domestic abuse offenders, for example, those charged with common assault.

"It will also not include those offenders with a history of domestic abuse who are serving a prison sentence for an unrelated offence, meaning some domestic abuse perpetrators will be released from prison early under SDS40.

"Even though offenders released will be monitored by the Probation Service, previous concerns have been raised about the probation service's ability to adequately monitor domestic abuse perpetrators."

Isabelle Younane, head of external affairs at Women's Aid, said: "We have been assured that prisoners convicted of sexual and some domestic abuse offences will not be among those released, but sadly we are hearing from our member services across the country that many perpetrators are slipping through the net, having been convicted of other related offences, such as assault.

"The early release of perpetrators will have a detrimental impact on both the physical safety and mental wellbeing of survivors, who have been able to live in safety and begun to rebuild their lives free from fear while their abuser was in prison.

"The early release scheme relies heavily on an already overstretched and struggling probation service, and we fear that the release of such high volumes of prisoners at once will push them to breaking point."

Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood said: “This Government will tackle the crisis head on and today, changes will come into force to prevent a total collapse of our criminal justice system that would leave the public less safe.

“If we had not acted when we came into office, there was a real risk that the courts would have been forced to delay sending offenders to jail and police left unable to arrest dangerous criminals.

“This is a temporary measure, giving us time to set about long-term change in the prison system – building the prisons we need and driving down reoffending.”