Tory members threaten to vote Reform unless one of these three people replaces Rishi Sunak
This Morning hosts quiz Rishi Sunak over general election
A major new survey of activists who were registered Conservative Party members in November 2022 when Rishi Sunak became leader has revealed that half would consider voting for Reform UK at the next election.
Express.co.uk has been given exclusive access to a survey by the Conservative Post of 2,086 people who the website has stated were verified by CCHQ as being Tory members in 2022 when Boris Johnson was deposed as leader.
The survey of Tories from across the UK carried out on January 29 and 31, is approximately three times bigger than the ConHome poll carried out each month for most popular members of the Cabinet.
The findings have underlined enormous discontent in parts of the Tory party as well as identifying that activists thinking of switching their vote want one of three people to be leader.
It comes amid concerns that the party could be facing a wipeout at the next general election with less than 100 seats. Meanwhile two key by-elections on February 15 in Wellingborough and Kingswood are being framed as "a referendum on the Sunak government".
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Rishi Sunak as leader
While former Cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke's call for Mr Sunak to quit last month did not receive any public support from his colleagues in Parliament, the survey suggests that there is an appetite for change among the membership who were denied an opportunity to vote for Mr Sunak as leader after Liz Truss was forced to resign.
The survey findings revealed:
Only 23.63 percent say they will vote Conservative at the next General Election if Rishi Sunak is still leader.
90.10 percent will not be campaigning for the Conservative Party in the lead-up to the General Election if Rishi Sunak remains as Prime Minister.
68.95 percent would support the party getting a new leader before the next General Election if it could be done quickly.
71.74 percent think the Conservative Party would have a better chance of winning the next election with a new leader.
The attraction of Reform UK
Even without Nigel Farage returning to frontline politics there also appears to be evidence that Tory members have already switched their allegiance to Reform UK with Richard Tice as leader. The survey showed:
If an election was called today 50.48 percent of members would vote for Reform UK.
15.95 percent of the Tory members from 2022 surveyed say they have already joined Reform UK.
- 75.5 percent want Nigel Farage to become a Conservative member.
There are also concerns about the current direction of the party. The survey shows:
90 percent think the Conservative Party is not currently conservative enough.
62 percent think the top priority for the Government over the next 12 months should be reducing illegal immigration.
92.09 percent currently feel the party has been hijacked by non-members.
Leadership options
From a list of alternative leaders, only four have a net positive rating with the survey showing a strong desire for Boris Johnson to come back among members.
Asked if they would vote Conservative with the following people as leader, Mr Johnson came top with 85.37 percent yes followed by Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg on 69.51 percent and Suella Braverman on 65.38 percent.
The only other option to get a net positive was Dame Priti Patel with 47.36 percent yes above her 41.5 percent no.
The survey is bad news for two of the frontrunners in the ConHome polls Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt who both rate as net negatives.
Ms Badenoch, whose support for Brexit has been questioned and has angered Boris Johnson supporters by playing a part in his ousting, is 46.36 percent no to 43.38 percent yes. Ms Mordaunt is 47.7 no to 42.62 percent yes.
The least popular were Lord Cameron with 75.6 percent no, and James Cleverly with 68.02 percent no.
What inspired the survey
Conservative Post editor Claire Bullivant, herself a Tory activist, said: "A few weeks ago I was asked to go campaigning in Worcestershire. I was one of only two who turned up.
"Not so long ago come rain or shine, there would have been the equivalent of at least a few football teams giving up their Sunday morning to pound the pavements with me. Not anymore.
"I knew support for the party was waning, I hear it every day from my readers of the Conservative Post. But I made some calls and was astonished so many of the usual faces I see running events for my local association, stuffing envelopes, delivering leaflets, the really dedicated members that lived and breathed the party, had also laid down their tools. One who had supported the party for over 60 years told me: 'They expect my time, effort and money but not my opinions. I’m not helping anymore. I’ve had enough.'
"I reached out to various Association Chairmans across the country and they all painted the same bleak picture. Members and local activists, the men and women who do so much to win us local and national elections, are on strike.
"I believe, outside of CCHQ, the Conservative Post holds the largest database of Conservative Party members, so I decided to run this survey. It was open only to Conservative Party members (who were verified by CCHQ in November 2022) and was overseen by a very well-respected data analysist called Mike Rouse at Bluetorch Consulting who has run many data collection processes for the party. The results are fair, honest and speak for themselves.
"I’m an eternal optimist and have tremendous faith in our party and the Conservative MPs to do the right thing. We need to win this next election. Just as the rest of the world is turning its back on socialism and moving towards the right, we don’t want to be stuck with socialists in power for the next five years here in the UK. We’re in the midst of an almighty storm. Let’s send out the lifeboats and bring the members back. It’s time to become proper conservatives again to save our party and our country.
"But to do that, members are clear, we need a new leader."
The Findings:
Have you ever campaigned for the Conservative Party?
(Campaigning was defined in the survey as “knocking on doors, delivering leaflets, raising funds, helping out on polling day, etc.”)
No | 62.97% |
Yes | 37.03% |
Will you be campaigning for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the General Election if Rishi Sunak remains as Prime Minister?
No | 90.10% |
Yes | 9.90% |
Would you campaign for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the General Election if there was a new leader with more conservative values?
Yes | 40.38% |
Don't know | 36.38% |
No | 23.24% |
If a new leader could be chosen quickly (within 7 days), would you support the party getting a new leader before the next General Election?
Yes | 68.95% |
Don't know | 15.89% |
No | 15.17% |
Do you think the Conservative Party is currently conservative enough?
No | 90.00% |
Yes | 5.84% |
Don't know | 4.15% |
Have you joined the Reform Party?
No | 42.07% |
Considering | 41.98% |
Yes | 15.95% |
Do you think the Conservative Party would have a better chance of winning the next election with a new leader?
Yes | 71.74% |
No | 14.16% |
Don't know | 14.11% |
If a general election were called TODAY and you HAD to vote, which party would you vote for?
Reform UK | 50.48% |
Conservative | 34.28% |
Would not vote | 13.04% |
Another party not listed | 0.77% |
Liberal Democrat | 0.67% |
Labour | 0.67% |
Green | 0.10% |
Table below shows how this is split by members who say they normally actively campaign for the Conservative Party and those that are members but don’t campaign.
Party Preference | Non-Campaigners | Campaigners |
Another party not listed | 0.69% | 0.91% |
Conservative | 31.70% | 38.80% |
Green | 0.08% | 0.13% |
Labour | 0.84% | 0.39% |
Liberal Democrat | 0.61% | 0.78% |
Reform UK | 54.59% | 43.36% |
Would not vote | 11.49% | 15.63% |
Voting intentions by age group
Party Preference | Under 18 | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-54 | 55-64 | 65 or Above | Prefer Not to Answer |
Another party not listed | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.67 | 0.00 | 1.23 | 1.58 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
Conservative | 36.67 | 33.33 | 6.67 | 35.59 | 25.77 | 24.65 | 39.44 | 35.48 |
Green | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
Labour | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.23 | 0.59 | 0.72 | 0.00 |
Liberal Democrat | 3.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.69 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.72 | 0.00 |
Reform UK | 40.00 | 66.67 | 86.67 | 49.15 | 55.83 | 60.95 | 45.70 | 45.16 |
Would not vote | 20.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.56 | 15.95 | 11.64 | 12.93 | 19.35 |
Voting intentions by region
UK Region | Con | Lab | Lib | Green | Reform | Would not vote | Other |
East Midlands | 28.80% | - | 1.05% | - | 54.97% | 15.18% | 0.00% |
East of England | 37.22% | - | 0.45% | - | 51.12% | 10.31% | 0.90% |
London | 30.34% | 0.69% | - | - | 55.86% | 11.72% | 1.38% |
North East | 35.62% | - | - | - | 56.16% | 6.85% | 1.37% |
North West | 29.70% | 0.99% | 0.99% | - | 52.97% | 15.35% | 0.00% |
Northern Ireland | 25.00% | - | - | - | - | 75.00% | 25.00% |
Scotland | 45.57% | 0.00% | - | - | 47.47% | 4.43% | 2.53% |
South East | 36.54% | - | 1.92% | 0.24% | 51.44% | 9.62% | 0.24% |
South West | 38.08% | 0.71% | - | 0.36% | 47.69% | 12.81% | 0.36% |
Wales | 34.12% | 1.18% | - | - | 41.18% | 23.53% | 0.00% |
West Midlands | 39.88% | - | 1.73% | - | 47.98% | 8.67% | 1.73% |
Yorkshire and The Humber | 24.07% | 1.85% | 0.62% | - | 53.09% | 19.14% | 1.23% |
Would you support a return of Nigel Farage to the Conservative Party?
Yes | 75.55% |
Not sure | 13.57% |
No | 10.88% |
Which of the following do you think should be TOP priorities for the government over the next 12 months?
Not a priority | Neutral or unsure | Priority | |
Reducing illegal immigration | 25 | 58 | 1990 |
Tackling inflation | 145 | 552 | 1293 |
Reducing NHS waiting lists | 71 | 367 | 1581 |
Tackling too much wokeness | 111 | 180 | 1747 |
Children's safety online | 238 | 676 | 1063 |
National security | 22 | 102 | 1934 |
Building new homes | 498 | 800 | 680 |
Ending public sector strikes | 208 | 529 | 1271 |
Education | 207 | 766 | 1014 |
Cutting taxes | 197 | 506 | 1315 |
Growing the economy | 36 | 200 | 1793 |
How important are the following priorities for the government over the next 12 months?
Reducing illegal immigration | Priority | 96.00% |
Reducing illegal immigration | Neutral or unsure | 2.80% |
Reducing illegal immigration | Not a priority | 1.21% |
Tackling inflation | Priority | 64.97% |
Tackling inflation | Neutral or unsure | 27.74% |
Tackling inflation | Not a priority | 7.29% |
Reducing NHS waiting lists | Priority | 78.31% |
Reducing NHS waiting lists | Neutral or unsure | 18.18% |
Reducing NHS waiting lists | Not a priority | 3.52% |
Tackling too much wokeness | Priority | 85.72% |
Tackling too much wokeness | Neutral or unsure | 8.83% |
Tackling too much wokeness | Not a priority | 5.45% |
Children's safety online | Priority | 53.77% |
Children's safety online | Neutral or unsure | 34.19% |
Children's safety online | Not a priority | 12.04% |
National security | Priority | 93.97% |
National security | Neutral or unsure | 4.96% |
National security | Not a priority | 1.07% |
Building new homes | Neutral or unsure | 40.44% |
Building new homes | Priority | 34.38% |
Building new homes | Not a priority | 25.18% |
Ending public sector strikes | Priority | 63.30% |
Ending public sector strikes | Neutral or unsure | 26.34% |
Ending public sector strikes | Not a priority | 10.36% |
Education | Priority | 51.03% |
Education | Neutral or unsure | 38.55% |
Education | Not a priority | 10.42% |
Cutting taxes | Priority | 65.16% |
Cutting taxes | Neutral or unsure | 25.07% |
Cutting taxes | Not a priority | 9.76% |
Growing the economy | Priority | 88.37% |
Growing the economy | Neutral or unsure | 9.86% |
Growing the economy | Not a priority | 1.77% |
Which of these priorities would be your TOP priority?
Reducing illegal immigration | 68.02% |
Growing the economy | 8.92% |
National security | 8.25% |
Cutting taxes | 4.31% |
Reducing NHS waiting lists | 3.26% |
Tackling too much wokeness | 3.21% |
Tackling inflation | 1.58% |
Ending public sector strikes | 0.81% |
Building new homes | 0.72% |
Reducing carbon emissions | 0.38% |
Education | 0.38% |
Children’s safety online | 0.14% |
As things stand will you vote Conservative at the next General Election with Rishi Sunak as leader?
No | 57.43% |
Yes | 23.63% |
Don't know | 18.94% |
Would you vote Conservative at the next General Election with the following people as leader?
No, I would not | Yes, I would | |
Liz Truss | 997 | 899 |
250 | 1781 | |
David Cameron | 1577 | 292 |
Suella Braverman | 562 | 1364 |
Priti Patel | 867 | 988 |
Kemi Badenoch | 967 | 905 |
Jacob Rees-Mogg | 479 | 1450 |
1419 | 395 | |
Penny Mordaunt | 995 | 889 |
Robert Jenrick | 1175 | 660 |
The following percentage of members say they would vote Conservative at the next General Election if the following was made leader:
85.37% | |
Jacob Rees-Mogg | 69.51% |
Suella Braverman | 65.38% |
Priti Patel | 47.36% |
Kemi Badenoch | 43.38% |
Liz Truss | 43.09% |
Penny Mordaunt | 42.61% |
Robert Jenrick | 31.63% |
18.93% | |
David Cameron | 13.99% |
If the Conservative Party were to change leader now, which of the following would you support being Prime Minister to lead us into the next General Election? (Members were asked to choose their top 3). They received the following number of votes:
Liz Truss | 301 |
1419 | |
David Cameron | 100 |
Suella Braverman | 891 |
Jacob Rees-Mogg | 721 |
75 | |
Kemi Badenoch | 518 |
Penny Mordaunt | 520 |
Priti Patel | 286 |
Robert Jenrick | 220 |
Agee range on leader preference:
Key to the table: LT: Liz Truss, BJ: Boris Johnson, DC: David Cameron, SB: Suella Braverman, JRM: Jacob Rees-Mogg, JC: James Cleverly, KB: Kemi Badenoch, PM: Penny Mordaunt, PP: Priti Patel, RJ: Robert Jenrick
Age Range | LT | BJ | DC | SB | JRM | JC | KB | PM | PP | RJ |
Under 18 | 11.67 | 76.67 | 6.67 | 26.67 | 35.00 | 3.33 | 16.67 | 23.33 | 5.00 | 6.67 |
18-24 | 33.33 | 50.00 | 0.00 | 66.67 | 50.00 | 16.67 | 16.67 | 16.67 | 33.33 | 16.67 |
25-34 | 13.33 | 60.00 | 6.67 | 33.33 | 66.67 | 0.00 | 33.33 | 20.00 | 13.33 | 0.00 |
35-44 | 8.47 | 71.19 | 6.78 | 45.76 | 28.81 | 6.78 | 25.42 | 35.59 | 22.03 | 5.08 |
45-54 | 21.47 | 73.62 | 4.91 | 53.37 | 34.97 | 3.68 | 22.70 | 23.93 | 22.70 | 11.04 |
55-64 | 16.77 | 68.64 | 5.13 | 46.55 | 38.07 | 3.35 | 23.08 | 24.06 | 15.58 | 10.26 |
65 or Above | 13.01 | 66.99 | 4.34 | 40.24 | 33.25 | 3.45 | 26.10 | 25.38 | 11.57 | 11.00 |
Prefer Not to Answer | 9.68 | 54.84 | 9.68 | 48.39 | 19.35 | 6.45 | 25.81 | 12.90 | 19.35 | 16.13 |
Which Conservative leader do you think Labour would be most scared of facing in a General Election?
71.86% | |
Suella Braverman | 7.33% |
Kemi Badenoch | 6.62% |
Penny Mordaunt | 5.51% |
Other not listed | 2.68% |
Jacob Rees-Mogg | 2.59% |
1.01% | |
Liz Truss | 0.81% |
David Cameron | 0.77% |
Robert Jenrick | 0.48% |
Priti Patel | 0.34% |
Do you want to Bring Back Boris?
Yes | 73.20% |
Don't know | 15.24% |
No | 11.55% |
Do you believe the Conservative Party has been hijacked by non-Conservatives?
Yes | 92.09% |
Don't know | 5.03% |
No | 2.88% |
Fieldwork: 29/01/2024 to 31/01/2024 Valid Responses: 2086