Nigel Farage could be PM within the decade, says Jonathan Saxty
No other politician right now has anything like the name, recognition and brand - especially on the Right - which Farage has.
Nigel Farage has the wind in his sails. Reform UK's membership has grown 50 per cent in a week and now the party is within 1-2 points of the Conservative Party, according to the latest polling.
The fact Reform UK is unlikely to pick up more than a pocketful of seats thanks to Britain's first past the post voting system should not obscure the phenomenal success of the party or its seemingly limitless potential to influence British politics.
Nigel Farage is of course correct when he says Labour has this election sewn up and the battle now - so far as Reform and the Conservatives are concerned - is who forms the opposition both within and outside Parliament.
It may seem fanciful to believe Reform UK could lead the government after next but consider the facts.
What chance is there that Labour will make a stunning success of government? By their own admission the party will inherit a terrible set of economic conditions, thus unable to repeat Tony Blair's trick of piggybacking on solid Tory stewardship of the economy.
We can already see some of Labour's half-baked ideas coming unstuck, such as the VAT plan for private schools, which will clobber the aspirational middle, fail to touch the mega rich, fail to raise anything like the cash the party suggests, and will likely burden the State sector further as thousands of children are pushed out of independent schools.
Having trashed grammar schools, Labour is now looking to destroy private ones as well. That's before we get to the party's worryingly vague commitments on defence, housing, and law and order, and - lest we forget - an immigration policy which will almost certainly guarantee the elevated levels of migration established under the Tories continues.
It therefore seems increasingly likely that this will be a one-term government. If Farage can pull off some Canada-style upset - when the smaller Reform party in that country completed a reverse takeover of the long-established Progressive Conservatives - then it seems possible Reform could be leading a future British government within the decade.
No other politician right now has anything like the name recognition and brand - especially on the Right - which Farage has. His leadership of any opposition to the looming Starmer government would be the most likely to draw media attention and galvanise those who oppose Labour.
Of course, this could all be bunkum. Reform UK will still be penalised by first past the post, a voting system Labour has zero incentive to change, although mass Tory defections among MPs and voters could mitigate this.
A major global catastrophe, such as a world war, might also lead voters to back continuity and help Labour a secure a second term. Meanwhile, a failure to "unite the Right" would all but guarantee Labour continues in power.
We should not underestimate the animosity many Tories feel towards Farage, especially the 'One Nation' types who are the ones more likely to retain their seats in Parliament in this looming electoral wipeout.
Still, in these febrile times, one must not discount the unique opportunity which Farage and Reform now have. Moreover, for all the momentum Sir Keir Starmer's Labour has, a mix of half-baked policies, Labour's own internal battles and personality clashes, and wider economic conditions could condemn the party to a very limited time in office.
Frankly, this election is done and dusted and Labour has it in the bag. The battle now - so far as Reform UK and the Conservative Party are concerned - is what form the opposition to Labour takes and who will lead it. But, make no mistake, before long we could well see a Prime Minister Farage marching into Downing Street.
