Ukip is closing in on a massive breakthrough
SO WHAT will be remembered as the biggest political event of spring 2013? Naturally the death of Lady Thatcher must be the prime candidate.
But there is another that has thus far consumed only a tiny proportion of the column inches that have rightly been expended on the passing of the Iron Lady yet may have more pro found and longerlasting consequences.
I speak of the rise and rise of Ukip. The Eastleigh by-election, in which Ukip sensationally beat the Conservatives to second place, has of course registered in the national political consciousness. Ukip's surge in that contest has already led to the leaders of all three bigger parties toughening up their rhetoric on the issue of immigration in a series of setpiece speeches.
But Eastleigh will, I suggest, turn out to be just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. The rest of it is not yet visible to the Westminster political class but the more astute among them already have an uneasy feeling that something threatening is out there and closing in on them.
They are right to be worried and today I make this prediction: the local elections on Thursday May 2 will see Ukip make a breakthrough of such significance that all the other parties will be forced to recalibrate plans and policies in the runup to the general election of 2015.
The signs have been everywhere this week for anyone who cared to look for them. First it emerged that Ukip is putting up candidates in more than 1,700 of the 2,400 council seats that are up for grabs.
As the political betting guru Mike Smithson noted: "For Ukip to have the nationwide organisation capable of putting up candidates in three quarters of the seats is a massive achievement." It is indeed a great leap forward, giving many people the chance for the first time to vote for Ukip in a set of local elections.
There were also reports that significant Conser vative donors have begun to defect to Ukip thanks to the sterling efforts of its treasurer Stuart Wheeler. One, businessman Adrian Buckley, explained: "I was attracted to Ukip because Nigel Farage clearly outlined his desire for a much smaller state involvement in our lives and an immediate with drawal from Europe."
The icing on the cake this week for Ukip came with the announce ment that its membership has climbed above 25,000 - it only hit 20,000 in mid-December so 2013 has seen a remarkable rate of growth.
I spent Wednesday morning following Mr Farage on a leg of the Common Sense tour of the country that he has been embarked upon for the past fortnight.
or Ukip to have the nationwide organisation capable of putting up candidates in three quarters of the seats is a massive achievement.
Even though I had been told in advance that the reaction he had been receiving was remarkable I was still surprised by the warmth with which he was greeted in the towns and villages of Northamptonshire.
In the delightful old village of Geddington, population 1,504, dozens turned out to greet him. Standing on the stone steps of the Eleanor Cross, built in 1291 by King Edward I in memory of his late queen, Mr Farage declaimed the gospel according to Ukip. "The leaders of the three main parties are all from the same backgrounds. None has worked in the real world. They are completely disconnected from the lives and hopes of ordinary fami lies," he told them.
Pitching Ukip as the party that can protect the job prospects of unemployed British youngsters he added: "We have to stop the door being opened to Romania and Bulgaria. We have to put the interests of our own people first."
A Conservative councillor turned up to beg the audience not to vote on national issues in local elections. But most people there were lapping up Ukip's message and appeared to be looking forward to giving the big ger parties a bloody nose on May 2.
In the towns of Corby and Kettering, Mr Farage also went down a storm. The former was of course the scene of a previous Ukip stellar performance in a parlia mentary byelection and its candi date from that contest Margot Parker helped her leader work the crowds.
In the gentle spring sunshine at Geddington, with a pub and a lovely Saxon church across the way, the obsessions of the political class at Westminster seemed very much fur ther than 80 miles away. The previ ous day the Farage roadshow had visited Lincolnshire. In Grantham he signed the book of condolence for Baroness Thatcher, revered daugh ter of that corner of Middle England.
Back at Westminster on Wednesday Messrs Cameron and Miliband spoke eloquently about the Iron Lady. But it seemed to me that the more significant story was taking place where she came from rather than where she ended up.