I visited the Falkland Islands - Argentina doesn’t stand a chance of taking over

Argentina’s attempted invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982 is etched into the modern British psyche as a tremendous victory. Focusing on the heroism of the Scots Guards and Royal Marines in repelling the incursion, we tend to ignore the fact that peace negotiations were being carried out in the background between Margaret Thatcher’s Foreign Secretary, Francis Pym, and the United States Secretary of State, Alexander Haig. These are brilliantly detailed by Charles Moore in his biography of the Iron Lady.

I recently stayed at the Malvina House Hotel very close to a bust of the former British Prime Minister in Thatcher Drive. During my first morning, I was sitting eating my breakfast when a Typhoon jet swooped over the port. They produce the “sound of freedom”, Falklanders say. There are four of the aircraft based on the archipelago and, as of 2024, around 1,500 military personnel at one time.

The population of the islands is only around 3,600, according to the 2021 census.

Speaking to people on the islands during a recent visit, they were not concerned about the prospect of another invasion. If there were, they are confident that the UK would ensure their protection.

Nevertheless, they also said they would fight to remain British, and Sir Keir Starmer should not even think of handing them over in a Chagos-style deal.

Besides, Argentina’s official policy is to try and gain sovereignty over the Falklands diplomatically, and the country’s President, Javier Milei, says he does not want war.

I spoke to people in Argentina also, and from what they said, it seemed as though the nation is still traumatised by the conflict, to some extent.

Very young men, aged 18 and 19, were conscripted and sent to fight in what they described as awful conditions.

A number told me of alleged abuse and a lack of food.

Today, reports suggest that only a fraction of Argentina’s navy is actively operational.

In December, the first six US-origin F-16 fighter aircraft from Denmark landed in Río Cuarto, Cordoba.

The US provided $40million to help cover the down payment on the $560million package, through which it will supply “training, maintenance, and long-term support”.

The Argentine Air Force has been depending on 36 Douglas A-4AR Skyhawks, which were originally manufactured between 1970 and 1976, before being upgraded between 1997 and 2000.

If a warmongering leader were to take power in the South American state again in the future, they would have a hard time taking on the British military, despite concerns about its reach and budget.

The Royal Air Force has around 137 Eurofighter Typhoon multi-role jets and a growing number of F-35B Lightning II stealth fighters.

Britain also has two active aircraft carriers that could be dispatched southwards.

The nature of war nowadays means there would most likely not be any boots on the ground, and the conflict would be waged using drones and air strikes.

But aside from the Armed Forces of each nation, the major obstacle Argentina won’t be getting over any time soon is a political one.

Milei believes that the UK may come to the negotiating table, telling the BBC that Westminster "might not want to negotiate today", but "at some later point they might want to".

The chainsaw-wielding leader added: "Many positions have changed over time."

In my view, this is a fantasy. It seems to me like nationalistic rhetoric to placate the electorate rather than an actual realistic plan.

Britain’s Labour Government has paused its giveaway of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean, which it planned to hand to Mauritius.

If this does eventually go ahead, it would have to go down as one of the most baffling recent geopolitical moves. But that’s another story.

Indeed, the Chair of the Falklands’ legislative body, Jack Ford MLA, emphasised to me that the two cases are very different.

Sir Keir has surely perceived that the British people hate the idea of ceding territory for no tangible reason.

His predecessor, Sir Tony Blair, apparently told Alastair Campbell after winning his landslide victory in 1997: “It's just a shame Britain is so small, physically."

I’m sure many Brits will agree. The country needs territory in strategic places in order to exercise influence.

The Falkland Islands are certainly an example of this.

Many voters, ones that Labour needs to win back, just would not stand for it. It would be political suicide.

And the odds of Britain being willing to negotiate would surely decrease were a Reform UK government elected.

Daniel Filmus was the secretary for the affairs concerning the Malvinas between 2014 and 2015, and later from 2019 until 2021.

He told me in Buenos Aires that the British people want discussions with Argentina over the islands, and those living in the “usurped” territory would accept a handover after pressure from the international community.

This just doesn’t ring true to me at all.