Brexit deal in THREE WEEKS? Brussels warming to settlement as May prepares new offer
A BREXIT divorce deal could be just three weeks away with negotiators creating a political road map that plots a course around the thorny issues of financial settlement and Northern Ireland.
Barnier urges UK to settle Brexit divorce bill
Theresa May’s renewed £36billion divorce bill offer appears to have jump-started the talks and the week of December 4 is now being pencilled in for the start of trade talks.
Senior EU diplomats acknowledge there is now a better than even chance of agreement on “sufficient progress” when leaders meet at a summit on December 14 and 15.
But they warned there are still some potential roadblocks in the shape of the two toughest unresolved issues.
On the financial side, Britain has yet to disclose the full details of Mrs May’s new offer and some diplomats fear the gap with the EU may still be too wide.
Germany and France have made it clear they will not accept Britain keeping back part of a financial settlement as a bargaining chip for later trade negotiations.
Berlin is particularly resistant to any conditions directly tying a financial settlement to any future trade deal and one senior EU diplomat warned such demands would lead Britain down “a dangerous path”.
The other serious sticking point is the Northern Ireland border and compromise on the sensitive issue seems no closer to being reached.
Dublin’s demands for Northern Ireland to avoid post-Brexit regulatory divergence from Ireland were described as “reckless” by Arlene Foster, the leader of the Democratic Unionist party which makes up Mrs May’s Commons majority.
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Diplomats are working on compromise language that refers to the need to maintain north-south regulatory convergence within the context of future EU-UK relations.
But the talks are extremely difficult with tension growing between Dublin and London.
Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said the £36bn offer from Mrs May was not sufficient and that she would also have to address the Ireland-UK border question.
Mr Coveney said Ireland would not just "move on" when the Brexit divorce bill has been settled and that the border issue had to be resolved.
Mrs May’s immediate focus is ensuring the the 27 EU member states recognises “sufficient progress” has been made while signalling progress towards a transition deal “of around two years” and a trade deal.
But she also wants to show Britain’s business leaders she can deliver an “implementation phase”, although British officials do not expect the broad outlines of the deal to be in place until February.