UK's defence against Iranian missiles relies on 1 thing – and it's not British
The war in the Middle East has exposed fears that London could fall within range of Iranian missiles.
A failed attack on Britain’s Diego Garcia military base on the Chagos Islands and claims by the Israeli government that Tehran could strike London have raised concerns about the security of the UK. It is the latest in a series of alarms raised about the state of the UK armed forces, their effectiveness and ability to deploy around the globe.
While claims about Iran’s ability to strike the UK capital should be a concern, they should, of course, be viewed through the prism of realism. On the surface, an attack by Iran on a UK base 2,400 miles away has raised fears that should the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) turn their missile launchers 180 degrees, the UK could be in danger. The concern is valid, but it is worth noting that the cause for the concern, the attack on the Chagos, is the reason for reassurance – it failed, with one missile shot down and another crashing mid-flight.
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The reasoning behind the attack is unclear. It could simply be posturing with little hope of success, or a genuine attempt to strike British territory. Senior figures within the Ministry of Defence will be assessing the security implications for the UK mainland following the attack.
As unlikely as a strike on London by Tehran is, it is worth considering the mechanisms in place to defend against it.
Britain’s current defence against ballistic missile attack lies in its Sea Viper systems, which are carried upon the Royal Navy’s Type 45 destroyers.
The farce of deploying HMS Dragon to Cyprus (due some time this year), has laid bare the state of the Navy’s frigate capability, with three of the other five Type 45s currently in port and effectively non-operational.
Hardly reassuring.
Luckily, Britain’s security is not solely in the hands of broken ships. As a NATO member, it is protected by the alliance's Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system.
The BMD works as a shared shield across member countries and uses a mix of radars, satellites and command systems to spot a missile launch early, track where it’s heading, and then guide interceptor missiles to destroy it mid-air.
The system currently has sites in Poland and Romania, in addition to four US Navy destroyers. These are better equipped than the Type 45 destroyers believed to be in Spain and able to intercept missiles, and is complemented by radar assets in Turkey.
Britain, as a member of NATO, is protected by the alliance's Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system, which has sites in Poland and Romania in addition to four US Navy destroyers, which are better equipped than the Type 45 destroyers and can intercept the missiles.
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Rusi think tank, told The Times: “If launched towards the UK, this is what NATO’s BMD is designed for. The UK isn’t actually defenceless against a threat launched from Iran.”
While it is unlikely that Iran possesses missiles capable of reaching London, that is not to say they won't be in a decade. The military is hoping to radically change that, provided Rachel Reeves eventually wakes up and funds the response to the inherent threats facing the country.
War is a breeding ground for technological evolution – look at the development of tanks in WW1, rockets in WW2 and drones in Ukraine. Throw in the increasing capability of AI, and it is not hyperbolic to suggest that London will sit within the realistic range of conventional missiles in the hands of an adversary in the 2030s.
A MoD spokesperson said: “We have the resources we need to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it's on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.
“The UK operates a layered approach to air and missile defence, provided by Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force assets equipped with a range of advanced capabilities, working in tandem with our NATO allies.
“This Government has prioritised the need for air and missile defence for UK national security after years of underfunding, and that is why last June, following recommendations in the Strategic Defence Review, we announced up to £1billion in new funding to improve air and missile defence and keep the UK secure.
“This includes a new £118million contract announced last year to deliver six state-of-the-art Land Ceptor missile systems, which as part of the Sky Sabre system can hit a tennis ball-sized object travelling at twice the speed of sound.”
