The Mandelson affair is so similar to Profumo - it means Starmer and Labour are finished
Whispers of downfall echo as Keir Starmer faces a scandal reminiscent of the Profumo Affair. Author Michael D. Carroll asks, could history be repeating itself?
Starmer is "toast" - or at least that's the whisper echoing through Westminster corridors as the Prime Minister battles the Mandelson-Epstein scandal. Political historians are now drawing comparisons to the only British affair that comes close in scale: the Profumo scandal that brought down Harold Macmillan's government in 1963.
Starmer's decision to appoint Lord Mandelson as Ambassador to the US despite knowing he had maintained links to Jeffrey Epstein after the financier's conviction threatens to become the worst political catastrophe to rock Westminster in over 60 years.
But what exactly was the Profumo Affair and how similar is it to the controversy engulfing Downing Street today?
The scandal that shook the establishment
On the evening of 8 July, 1961, glamorous Conservative Secretary of State for War John Profumo - considered a "rising star" at the age of 46 - was a guest of the 3rd Viscount of Astor at his ancestral home, Cliveden House.
Showgirl Christine Keeler was staying at Spring Cottage on the estate, which society osteopath Stephen Ward rented from Astor. While there is no suggestion Ward was involved in anything like Epstein's horrific crimes against children, what Ward did share with the American financier was his role as a "connector" between society figures and young women who would likely be considered vulnerable by today's standards.
Ward and his guests went for a dip in the estate's walled pool. Keeler, who had been swimming naked, was reportedly introduced to the "dinner-jacketed" Profumo as she tried to cover herself with a small towel. Profumo was immediately smitten, later describing her to his son as "a very pretty girl and very sweet".
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Enter the Russians
The next afternoon brought a parallel with the Epstein scandal that may yet become more significant: the role of Russian intelligence.
The group was joined by Yevgeny Ivanov, a Soviet naval attaché. Ward had established a relationship with Ivanov at the request of MI5, who hoped to use Ward's circle to potentially entrap the Russian as a double agent. The role of our own security services in the current scandal has hardly been touched upon as yet.
Encouraged by Ward, Profumo began a sexual relationship with Keeler. He later admitted to having sexual relations with her "three or four times" at Ward's London flat in Wimpole Mews. Keeler described it as a "well-mannered screw of convenience," though Profumo reportedly offered to set her up in her own flat.
The scandal's weight rested on the fact that while Profumo was seeing Keeler, she was also involved with Ivanov. This created a "security triangle" that MI5 feared could lead to the leak of state secrets.
Profumo ended his relationship with Keeler via a letter starting with "Darling," after being warned by Cabinet Secretary Sir Norman Brook about the security risks of associating with Ward.
The lie that destroyed a career
The affair became public knowledge when details emerged during a police investigation into an incident involving two of Keeler's other boyfriends.
Like pronouncements made in the House that may yet haunt Starmer, Profumo made a personal statement to the House of Commons, explicitly denying "any impropriety whatsoever" in his relationship with Keeler.
By June 1963, evidence against Profumo became undeniable, and he resigned from both his cabinet post and Parliament, admitting he had lied to the House of Commons.
The parallel predicament
Like Starmer's claims to regret trusting Mandelson despite revelations of his "deceit" over recent days, PM Macmillan admitted he had initially believed Profumo's lies to Parliament. The subsequent exposure left the Prime Minister looking naive and out of touch - precisely how Starmer appears now.
Ward, the society osteopath and artist, was charged with eight offences, the most serious being knowingly living on the immoral earnings of prostitution. During the trial he was portrayed as a figure of "lechery and depravity".
Like Epstein, Ward's end was officially recorded as being by his own hand. On the final night of the trial (30 July, 1963), after hearing the judge's highly critical summing up, Ward took an overdose of sleeping pills. He left a note stating: "The ritual sacrifice is demanded and I cannot face it."
What history teaches
The Denning Report, published on 24 October, 1963, was the official government inquiry into the circumstances surrounding Profumo's resignation. It found no security breaches had occurred and was largely dismissed as "a whitewash" - a fate any future inquiry into the Mandelson appointment should be wary to avoid.
The parallels between the two scandals are striking. Both involved "facilitators" - Ward then, Epstein now - connecting powerful figures with vulnerable females. Both exposed moral compromises at the heart of elite circles and raised fundamental questions about vetting processes that were supposed to protect the nation's interests.
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Both scandals damaged Britain's international standing at crucial moments. Both left Prime Ministers appearing naive and out of touch, having trusted the wrong people. Both featured security service concerns about foreign influence - Soviet intelligence in 1961, and questions about what sensitive information may have been shared with Epstein's network of contacts.
Most damning of all, both involved statements to Parliament that proved politically fatal when the full truth emerged.
What happened to the key players in the affair?
John Profumo withdrew from public life and devoted himself to charity work, earning widespread praise and a CBE in 1975.
Christine Keeler pleaded guilty to perjury and served a nine-month prison sentence.
Macmillan resigned on 18 October, 1963 citing "ill health" and was succeeded by Sir Alec Douglas-Home following a contentious leadership selection.
The weakened Conservative Party subsequently lost the 1964 General Election to Harold Wilson's Labour Party, ending 13 years of Tory rule.
The verdict awaits
The British public can only wait to find out who will take over if Starmer falls and when they might face a general election.
History suggests scandals of this magnitude - where Prime Ministers appear deceived by their own appointees, where security concerns emerge, where Parliament becomes the centre of the scandal - rarely end well for governments.
But whoever may succeed Starmer as leader, if history is any guide, the eventual electoral verdict of the long-suffering British people could prove punishing for Labour. The Profumo Affair teaches us that the public forgives many things - but not being made to swallow lies by those in power.
