Varadkar stunned: Why Boris Johnson was ‘real reason’ behind Taoiseach’s election woes
LEO VARADKAR suffered a mortifying defeat in the Irish general election this week as Fine Gael slipped to the third largest party in the Dail - and Boris Johnson may have been responsible for the Taoiseach's fall, an unearthed article by an expert in Irish politics suggests.
Irish election: Sinn Fein coalition ‘not an option’ says Varadkar
Mr Varadkar’s party Fine Gael won only 21 percent of the popular vote, embarrassingly overshadowed by both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein, leaving his future as Taoiseach uncertain. Even Mr Varadkar’s own seat in Dublin West looked unsteady, until the fifth round of counting confirmed he had just about held onto it. Many critics pointed out that the Fine Gael leader should have called an election shortly after his Brexit success with Mr Johnson, back in the Autumn.
The two leaders reached an unexpected agreement over the Irish border which was hailed as a great success for breaking the infamous Brexit impasse.
Yet, as commentator Liam Halligan pointed out in The Spectator last month, Mr Varadkar was “odds-on to lose” for weeks leading up to the Irish general election.
He said: “With Brexit happening on January 31, as campaigning goes into its final week, Fine Gael hopes to benefit from voters being reminded by what it sees as its sure-footed handling of the border negotiations.”
He continued: “While opposition parties point to the Dáil consensus on Brexit, Varadkar is asking for time to finish the job, with a role in the subsequent negotiation of a UK-EU trade deal.”
Mr Varadkar reminded reporters when he called the election that “Brexit isn’t done yet – it’s only half time”.
Before the historic agreement over the Irish border, Mr Varadkar relied on so-called “Brit-bashing”, according to Mr Halligan, to “help drum up domestic nationalist support for Fine Gael”.
However, Mr Halligan explained: “The UK election changed all that – and could impact this upcoming Irish election profoundly.”
Mr Johnson’s stomping majority in the Commons meant his Brexit deal could pass through Parliament almost effortlessly.
The commentator continued: “Brexit is now a done deal. So rather than leading the charge to prevent Britain reaching an agreement with Brussels, Dublin has every incentive over the coming months to encourage the EU and the UK to get on.
READ MORE: Will Varadkar hold May-style election if Johnson secures Brexit deal?
“Britain accounts for around a fifth of Irish trade, generating more than a billion euros each week.”
Mr Varadkar had to take a more “conciliatory approach” towards UK-Irish relations to benefit his country in the post-Brexit negotiations. Instead, he caused controversy when he claimed that Britain had a “colonial view” of the world at the end of last month.
Writing in the Evening Standard yesterday, London editor of The Irish Times Denis Staunton explained how Sinn Fein should be thanking Mr Johnson for its electoral success.
He wrote: “The Prime Minister’s Brexit deal neutralised Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s strongest issue and allowed the election campaign to be dominated by domestic issues such as health, housing and quality of life.”
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He added that although Mr Varadkar was heavily praised for his handling of Brexit, “voters in Ireland took to heart Johnson’s message that he had got Brexit done”.
Additionally, statistics revealed only one percent of voters said Brexit influenced their vote, according to an Ipsos/MRBI poll.
Focus had moved onto the underfunded public services and unaffordable housing instead.
While Fine Gael has been accused of not addressing such problems, Sinn Fein has proposed radical solutions to the housing crisis like a large house building programme and a rent freeze in their manifesto.
Mr Johnson’s renegotiated Brexit deal also removed the threat of a hard border between the Republic and Northern Ireland – igniting Sinn Fein’s hopes of a reunited Ireland.
Fifty-seven percent of voters in the Republic support referendums on both sides of the border at the weekend, according to a poll commissioned by the Irish Times, the broadcasters RTE and TF4 and University College Dublin.
Mr Halligan also pointed out how Mr Varadkar’s loss was aided by his “obsession with spin and image-making”, and how other “serious controversies have arisen and worsened on his watch”.
Under the Fine Gael leader, the party “lost its hard-earned reputation for budgetary prudence”, which is a “big deal” in Ireland.
It is not yet known which parties will make up the Irish Government, but Sinn Fein is pushing to form a ruling coalition with other parties.