How Swing States could decide result of US Election 2024 - Key battlegrounds to watch

If Democrat candidate Kamala Harris wins the US Election on November 5 she will become the first female US President in history.

Should Republican rival Donald Trump emerge victorious he will be the first former president to be re-elected after being defeated since Grover Cleveland in 1893.

About 240 million people are eligible to vote in this year’s US Election but with the polls so close only a relatively small number of them are likely to decide who becomes the next president.

Experts believe there are only a handful of so-called "swing" states that could plausibly be won by either candidate. Seven of them - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - hold the keys to the White House.

Express Politics takes a look at what a swing state is and what it could mean for either candidate on election night.

What are swing states?

Most states consistently vote for the same party in every election. This is why presidential candidates target specific "swing states" where the vote could go either way rather than trying to win over voters across the whole country.

Arizona is worth 11 electoral votes, Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10) - meaning they account for 93 of the total available.

The weighting of these votes means that winning a narrow swing state can have a disproportionate impact on the result – making them vital in securing the presidency.

Arizona

• Electoral college votes: 11 of 538
• State population: 7.4 million people
• 2020 winner: Joe Biden (Democrat) by 10,000 votes (0.6%)

Home to the epic Grand Canyon, Arizona could play an equally dramatic role in deciding the outcome of this year’s election having turned Democrat blue in 2020.

The state borders Mexico and has become a focal point of the nation’s immigration debate.

Border crossings have fallen in recent months from record highs, which have made the issue near the top of voters' concerns.

Trump has repeatedly attacked Ms Harris’s record on immigration, because she was given a role by President Biden to try and ease the border crisis.

He has also vowed to carry out “the largest deportation operation” in US history if he regains the presidency.

The state also has a sizeable Hispanic population. National polls suggest Trump is having success in winning over Latino voters, a continuation of gains he made in 2016 and 2020.

Arizona has also hosted a bitter row over abortion access, after state Republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies.

The issue has become even more polarising since 2022 when the US Supreme Court overturned a landmark ruling that gave women a constitutional right to abortion.

Michigan

• Electoral college votes: 15
• State population: 10 million
• 2020 winner: Biden by 150,000 votes (2.6%)

Due to its significant Muslim population Michigan has become symbolic of a nationwide backlash over Biden’s support for Israel during the war in Gaza. But Harris has taken a harder tone which could help her limit vote losses.

Trump sees the Great Lakes state as crucial for his path to victory. Commenting on events in the Middle East, he has called on Israel to finish its campaign over Hamas in Gaza, but "get it over with fast”.

Unsurprisingly for a state which contains Motown - Detroit - Michigan is known for manufacturing, particularly the car industry.

Both candidates have dramatically different views of the future with Harris pushing the green revolution, while Trump rejecting it.

With sales of electric vehicles (EVs) falling and Donald Trump’s pledge to increase oil production, he has a strong pitch to the traditionalists.

Georgia

• Electoral college votes: 16
• State population: 11 million
• 2020 winner: Biden by 13,000 votes (0.2%)

Georgia was the closest state in 2020 in percentage terms and the only one in the Deep South won by Biden.

A third of the state’s population is African-American, one of the country’s largest proportions of black residents, and it is believed that this was instrumental in the Democrats victory last time around.

A health economy in Georgia will also boost Kamala Harris’s chances but polling shows Trump is picking up support from younger voters.

Expect a wafer-thin outcome again.

Nevada

• Electoral college votes: 6
• State population: 3.2 million
• 2020 winner: Biden by 34,000 (2.7%)

Nevada has voted Democrat since 2008, but there are signs of a turnaround by the Republicans. Earlier in the year polls showed Trump enjoying a strong lead over Biden, but that advantage has shrunk since he stepped down and Harris took over the Democrat ticket.

Both candidates are vying to win the state’s sizeable Latino population.

The economy will also have a strong influence on the outcome with unemployment at 5.1%, the third highest rate in the country.

Trump has vowed a return to an agenda of lower taxes across the board, and fewer regulations.

North Carolina

• Electoral college votes: 16
• State population: 10.8 million
• 2020 winner: Trump by 74,000 (1.4%)

This “purple state” - one that could vote red or blue - really is a toss-up and winning it will be vital for Donald Trump if he wants to return to the White house.

It was significant that the former president chose to go to North Carolina for his first outdoor rally since an attempt was made on his life in July.

“This state is a very, very big state to win," he told the crowd.

Pennsylvania

• Electoral college votes: 19
• State population: 13 million
• 2020 winner: Biden by 82,000 (0.7%)

This is the state where Donald Trump survived the first assassination attempt. It proved pivotal in the 2020 election, helping Biden secure overall victory.

The economy is a top issue here, and the relatively high cost of living could hurt Kamala Harris.

She is especially keen to win Pennsylvania along with Michigan and Wisconsin, part of the so-called blue wall of 18 northern and coastal states won by every Democratic presidential candidate between 1992 and 2012.

The Democrats need to turn out the vote in the main cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Pennsylvania is also one of the nation’s top bellwether states, having backed the winner since 2008.

Wisconsin

• Electoral college votes: 10
• State population: 5.9 million
• 2020 winner: Biden by 21,000 (0.6%)

Wisconsin is the closest-run of the midwestern former Democratic strongholds that Trump took in 2016. He has described that state as “really important… if we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing”.

The summer Republican National Convention was held in Milwaukee.

But Harris is determined not to make the same mistake as Hillary Clinton who largely ignored the state eight years ago.

Opinions over abortion rights and the situation in Gaza will also have an impact.