Hezbollah has been humiliated - walkie-talkie and pager blasts leave them one option

In an operation of quite astonishing boldness and professionalism, the Israelis have struck a telling blow at their long-term enemy Hezbollah.

Yesterday, at approximately 13:45 BST, pagers which had been distributed by the terrorist organisation to its members and supporters began to explode, in an almost simultaneous series of events which lasted roughly half an hour.

Complete confusion ensued in Lebanon and parts of Syria as multiple individuals – presumably all associated in some way with Hezbollah, – were wounded and otherwise incapacitated as the electronic devices exploded in their hands, pockets, waist belts, and shopping bags.

Some 12 people appeared to have been killed by current reckoning, and possibly as many as 3,000 wounded in some way, some losing hands and fingers and others their eyesight. Deep abdominal wounds have also been reported in those who had their pagers on their belts.

What appears to have happened here is both fascinating and infinitely complex. It looks like what we have is an example of a “supply chain attack”, in which the Israeli security services have been able to intercept an order made for the said pagers by Hezbollah and doctor the devices by inserting small amounts of military grade explosives plus detonators.

Nobody knows how this might have happened, and the Israelis are quite rightly staying schtum. I would if I were them to be honest.

Make no mistake, if this is what has actually occurred it represents a major military coup for Israel and a humiliating embarrassment for Hezbollah. Having ordered its fighters and associated acolytes to abandon their mobile phones for fear of them being tracked and targeted, its reversionary mode of communication may have been totally exploited by their sworn enemy. Once again Israel appears to be ahead of the game.

Incidentally, it transpires that Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was injured in the wave of explosions. I was left wondering why he was in possession of one of the pagers, presumably Hezbollah-supplied, after reading he was wounded by his own device exploding. Is there some connection here?

It now transpires that there has been a second wave of attacks on Hezbollah communications devices, this time involving walkie-talkies and other similar devices.

Apparently “thousands” of hand-held communications devices exploded in Lebanon on Wednesday afternoon, with explosions being heard in the southern suburbs of Beirut, as well as the cities of Nabatieh, Tyre, and Saida in southern Lebanon. There are reports that nine people have been killed and another 300 injured in this second wave of attacks. The Israelis clearly aren’t finished yet.

What will happen next? Nobody knows, but with perhaps thousands of Hezbollah fighters wounded and disabled it will take the terrorists some time to recover and regroup. Those veterans who have lost fingers and hands, or perhaps their eyesight, will now find it difficult to dress and feed themselves let alone fire their rifles and missiles at the IDF. If you live by the sword you can expect to die by the sword. I have little sympathy for them.

Of course Hezbollah has sworn revenge but there doesn’t appear to be anything significant they can do in the short term. They have been struck and it’ll take them some time to pick up the pieces. But I don’t think they’re done and dusted, nor have they gone away. They’ll still be a thorn in the side of Israel on its northern border.

And I can’t see wiser heads prevailing in the short to medium term either. Hezbollah, and Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the various other jihadist groups and ne’er-do-wells aren’t going to just give up. I don’t think Iran will let them.

It seems they have been taught a severe lesson. Israel, philosophically, intellectually, and practically is away ahead of them, and there’s no sign of the gap closing. Their best option, in my opinion, is to seek peace.

Peace always involves compromises and swallowing of pride, but that’s a price worth paying. By both sides.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk