Why Brexit-bashing Barnier could be good for Britain - and a stark warning for Reform UK

Brexiteers are understandably alarmed at the prospect of former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier being crowned the new Prime Minister of France.

This is an implacable anti-Brexiteer after all, and one who shares President Emmanuel Macron's opposition to the UK 'cherry-picking' when it comes to harmonisation or realignment with the EU.

But it is possible that Sir Keir Starmer - whose instincts align far closer with Barnier's than any of his Tory predecessors - may be able to achieve a popular policy goal in Britain, the reduction of illegal immigration, through EU harmonisation, something the ever-pragmatic Barnier may be able to help secure given his track record and authority with the Eurocrats.

Although Sir Keir has ruled out re-joining the bloc, harmonisation with the EU Migration and Asylum Pact would surely be in his wheelhouse and would better guarantee that migrants should apply for asylum in the first safe EU country they reach, and hence moving on to Britain should therefore be automatically rejected.

Barnier and Macron may be against UK cherry-picking but they are pragmatists nonetheless. Barnier has also shifted to the Right on this subject in recent years, having called for a moratorium to freeze immigration to France for three to five years, as well as there being a binding referendum to decide what level of immigration was acceptable to the French people.

Little wonder the French Left are out on the streets against Barnier while Marine Le Pen's National Rally party has quietly accepted his appointment. Barnier will know that allowing one moment of cherry-picking for Sir Keir on this thorny issue could reap massive benefits for Brussels down the road as it softens up the UK for wholesale harmonisation.

This comes as Labour grapples with a toxic Tory legacy on immigration, and the need to keep the British economy moving while keeping voters in Reform-leaning constituencies on side. Moreover, the lawyer PM - with his penchant for legalistic approaches - would likely see that harmonisation with the EU would formalise a stricter asylum policy.

Europe as a whole is shifting to the Right on this issue as it is. Not just the usual suspects like the Hungarians and Poles, but the Danes, French and Germans too (note recent regional election results in Germany). In fact, politicians across the bloc blame the UK for many of Europe's asylum problems, with Britain's low regulation economy attracting low-skilled migrants, with Ireland in particular identifying Britain as a weak link given the latter's lenient visa rules.

It would not therefore be difficult to see Sir Keir and the likes of Barnier working together on this issue, pragmatically laying the groundwork for greater harmonisation and cooperation, but doing so via a popular move, that is actually doing something pro-active about getting illegal immigration under control.

The Conservatives have become so thoroughly discredited on this issue that no amount of griping from the sidelines is going to compensate for their lack of authority, with widespread doubts about the genuine conversions of many leadership candidates on this issue.

Reform UK has the credibility, but the electoral maths makes it very difficult for that to cut through in Parliament unless some deal can be struck with the Tories, something the Conservative Party - for now at least - seem fiercely resistant towards.

Harmonisation with the EU would in the normal course of events present an opportunity to attack Labour. However, if such a policy is not only designed to achieve, but succeeds in, bringing down illegal immigration numbers then it is likely to shore up Labour support against Reform while softening up an otherwise-sceptical British public for greater cooperation with the EU.

With its recent winter fuel allowance proposal - never mind talk of means-testing the state pension - Labour is displaying a ruthless streak in getting unpopular (but perhaps necessary) policies through while its honeymoon period is still underway, allowing sufficient time between this bitter medicine and the next election. Moreover, older voters are not as key a voting demographic for Labour as for the Conservatives.

It would therefore be perfectly plausible for Sir Keir and his party to apply the same ruthless logic to this issue: getting a key win under its belt, winning over the Brexiteer anti-migrant crowd, and thereby softening up the British public for more deals with Brussels.