SNP faces implosion as 'internal turmoil' threatens to torpedo Scottish independence dream

The SNP faces implosion as "internal turmoil" after its General Election drubbing threatens the party's Scottish independence dream and loss of power at Holyrood, an expert has suggested. John Sweeney's party plummeted to just nine seats at Westminster on July 4, down from 48 at the 2019 election.

Its defeat came ahead of fresh elections north of the border, with Scots going to the polls to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament in May 2026. The party has less than two years to sort itself out or face another thrashing at the ballot box.

Professor James Mitchell, Professor of Public Policy at the University of Edinburgh, suggested the party's General Election result will have sparked chaos among the Scots Nats.

He told Express.co.uk: "The heavy losses coming after a long period in which the SNP was the dominant Scottish party has almost inevitably led to internal recriminations, blame games and bitterness."

The expert explained the party is in an even weaker position than before the election, having now lost so many full-time politicians along with the support and resources that go with them.

He added: "The SNP has moved from a damage limitation exercise to facing the most serious challenge it has faced in decades."

Professor Mitchell said the situation the SNP finds itself in compares to a similar predicament the party faced in 1979 when it lost nine of its 11 seats.

He added: "While there are differences, the reaction to losses is similar with deep and bitter divisions from which it took the SNP many long and difficult years to recover.

"Heavy defeats leave political parties in a bad state to make sensible decisions. Emotions are raw especially when the scale of losses had not been anticipated."

The expert said it is likely that, along with the Tories, the SNP will go through a difficult period of "internal turmoil". He added: "Each party may go through a rapid series of leaders, as Scottish Labour did after it lost the 2007 Holyrood elections.

"The tendency for parties to look inwards with members fighting amongst themselves and losing sight of the wider electorate is common. The prospect of Holyrood elections in two years might concentrate minds, but the signs suggest otherwise."

The SNP has already suffered months of turmoil with leaders Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf both quitting in little over a year, a police probe into the party's finances and divisions over attempts to secure a second independence referendum.

Mr Swinney's party had argued before July 4 that winning a majority of Scottish seats would give it a mandate to pursue talks on independence with Westminster.

Professor Mitchell accused the SNP of believing too much of its own rhetoric on popular support for independence, suggesting the party had shown little understanding of public opinion.

He said: "Headline support for independence hides a range of opinion that was ignored. There is a hard core of people who support independence and likely always will, but that is far less than suggested in opinion polls.

"A sizeable element of those who tell pollsters they want independence also say they do not want a referendum any time soon and such support needs to be treated with scepticism.

"Many who voted Yes in 2014 in the hope of getting rid of the Tories may prove to be content with a Labour Government or at least wonder how an independent Scotland would cope under an SNP that has not had a great record without far greater challenges that will come with independence.

"The SNP will be bracing themselves for a very difficult election in 2026 and the very high probability of losing office."

An SNP spokesperson said: "The SNP is focussed on delivering on the issues that matter to the people of Scotland – eradicating poverty, growing the economy, reaching net zero, and improving and protecting our public services."