Where Boris could have won 20 MORE seats - but Nigel Farage blocked him
BORIS JOHNSON swept up a commanding majority for the Conservatives in the December election, but estimates are showing he could have gained even more if the Brexit Party hadn’t been in the running.
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The results of the December 12 election saw the Tories emerge with a majority of 80, 47 more than the 2017 poll. While the Brexit Party didn’t secure any seats in the House of Commons, estimates have shown Nigel Farage’s party may actually have thwarted further Tory majorities, leaving the seats in the hands of Labour.
The Brexit Party pulled candidates out of all the previously-held Tory seats during the election campaign.
However, Brexiteers were concerned this could lead to a split of the Leave vote and allow a Labour majority.
While the Tories won a staggering majority regardless, it appears this did manifest in at least 20 seats with a strong Leave vote.
Without the Brexit Party, the Tory vote would likely have been higher, which could have a resulted in a majority of 100 or more for Boris Johnson.
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The estimates initially came from internal Conservative polls.
However, other pollsters have backed these figures, concluding that more of Labour’s “Red Wall” would have gone blue but for Mr Farage’s decision to contest seats held by the opposition.
Further figures suggest the Tory majority would have exceeded Margaret Thatcher’s of 102 in 1987 if the Brexit Party had not stood at all.
Paul Hilder, chief executive of the polling firm Datapraxis, said: “According to our analysis, there are at least 20 Labour-held seats where the Brexit Party likely cost the Tories victory.
“One of the things that happened through the campaign was that some of the Labour to Brexit Party switchers came back to Labour, a few went tactically to the Tories and some ended up staying home.”
He added: “In seats such as Hartlepool, Rotherham and Barnsley Central and East, between 70 and 90 per cent of Brexit Party voters said they would vote Conservative if it was a two-horse race, with a maximum of 6.5 per cent choosing Labour instead.”
In Hartlepool one in four voters backed the Brexit Party chairman Richard Tice, allowing Labour’s Mike Hill to retain the seat with a majority of 3,595.
In Rotherham Sarah Champion hung on with a majority of 3,121 as the Brexit Party won 6,125 votes.
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Dan Jarvis in Barnsley Central, once thought a potential Labour leadership contender, also had a reduced majority of 3,571 in a seat where Mr Farage’s candidate came second.
In Doncaster, former Labour leader North Ed Miliband also clung on to a 2,370 majority despite a huge swing to the Brexit Party, which took 8,294 votes.
In Doncaster Central, the former Labour chief whip Dame Rosie Winterton might also have been saved by the Brexit Party’s 6,842 votes, which dwarfed a majority of 2,278.
Yvette Cooper, a potential leadership contender this time, held on by 1,276 in Normanton, while the Brexit Party took 8,032 votes.
The Brexit Party’s decision to stand down hundreds of candidates in Tory-held areas became one of the defining moments of the election campaign.
Seen as an endorsement of Mr Johnson’s Brexit policy, it won thousands of voters to vote blue.
The Remain vote, however, was split between Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru.
Labour suffered devastating setbacks, losing 59 seats and seeing its strongholds obliterated.