Brexit Party rise MAPPED: Which key marginals could the Brexit Party win in next election?
THE Brexit Party has 100 MP candidates ready to field every Westminster constituency in a general election, Nigel Farage announced on Sunday. So which marginals will they have their eye on?
Brexit Party: Farage addresses ‘Big Vision’ rally in Birmingham
Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage unveiled the new candidates at a 5,000-strong rally in Birmingham on Sunday. He declined to name the would-be MPs, but said they included teachers, an economist and a forklift driver. Mr Farage said his new outfit would be ready to field candidates in every Westminster constituency within days.
And party chairman Richard Tice said they would have enough candidates to contest all seats within days.
At the rowdy rally, Mr Farage said: “By the end of next week we will have 650 approved prospective parliamentary candidates.
“There is a big message that Westminster needs to hear. We are not a protest movement.”
Hot on the heels of their European Parliament election upset, the Brexit Party must now turn its sights to a general election and which seats it has the best shot at taking.
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Mr Farage said: “There are many seats in the country, especially many Labour-held seats in the country, where we are now the challenger – where only we can beat the Labour party.”
A general election in the UK is not due until 2022, but with unprecedented political uncertainty, parties are preparing for a snap election.
So which marginals might the Brexit Party be able to take?
There are 650 constituencies in the United Kingdom, all of whom elect one MP to represent them in the House of Commons.
There’s no official definition of a marginal seat but people usually look at constituencies where the majority in the previous election was less than one percent.
So, using that method, here is a look at the 10 most marginal seats in the UK after the 2017 election, and whether the Brexit Party might have a shot:
1. SCOTLAND - North East Fife
2017 margin: SNP hold from Lim Dems with just 2 votes
Could Brexit Party take? Not likely, vote more likely to swing to Lib Dems.
2. SCOTLAND - Perth and North Perthshire
2017 margin: SNP hold from Conservatives with 21 votes
Could Brexit Party take? If the number of Conservative voters who defected to the Brexit Party in the EU election is anything to go by, yes. However, Scotland voted with a major majority to remain in the EU referendum, so it’d be a tough fight.
3. LONDON - Kensington
2017 margin: Labour gain from Conservative with 20 votes
Could Brexit Party take? This is one of the Conservative’s key target seats for the next election. If the Brexit Party can successfully present itself as an alternative, they may have a chance.
4.WEST MIDLANDS - Dudley North
2017 margin: Labour hold from Conservatives with 22 votes
Could Brexit Party take? If Mr Farage is correct that the Brexit Party is the main challenger to Labour in some regions, yes.
5. SOUTH EAST - Southampton, Itchen
2017 margin: Conservative hold from Labour by 31 votes
Could Brexit Party take? If the number of Conservative voters who defected to the Brexit Party in the EU election is anything to go by, yes.
6. WEST MIDLANDS - Newcastle-Under-Lyme
2017 margin: Labour hold from Conservatives with 30 votes
Could Brexit Party take? If Mr Farage is correct that the Brexit Party is the main challenger to Labour in some regions, yes.
7. LONDON - Richmond Park
2017 margin: Conservatives hold from Lib Dems with 45 votes
Could Brexit Party take? Not likely, vote more likely to swing to Lib Dems.
8. NORTH WEST - Crewe and Nantwich
2017 margin: Labour gain from Conservatives with 48 votes
Could Brexit Party take? If the Brexit Party can successfully present itself as an alternative, they may have a chance.
9. SCOTLAND - Glasgow South West
2017 margin: SNP hold from Labour with 60 seats
Could Brexit Party take? If Mr Farage is correct that the Brexit Party is the main challenger to Labour in some regions, yes. However, Scotland voted with a major majority to remain in the EU referendum, so it’d be a tough fight. More likely to swing Lib Dem.
10. SCOTLAND - Glasgow East
2017 margin: SNP hold from Labour with 75 seats
Could Brexit Party take? See 9.
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