Brexit vote: How close will vote TONIGHT be? May's deal comes down to the wire
PRIME MINISTER Theresa May is facing the most important day in her political career as MPs will vote on her Brexit deal for a second time tonight. So how close will the vote be?
Brexit: Theresa May addresses Parliament ahead of vote
Theresa May’s divorce deal from the European Union will be voted on for a second time on Tuesday evening. Mrs May suffered a historic defeat in the Commons the first time she tried to have her Brexit deal passed, with 432 MPs rejecting it and only 202 backing the agreement. On Monday night, the Prime Minister took a flight to Strasbourg to look into whether there could be any last-minute changes to her controversial deal.
After meeting with European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, Mrs May said a series of amendments had been made.
Three fresh documents were unveiled last night with the Prime Minister saying the changes should satisfy Parliament’s concerns because it provides “legally binding” changes, such as allowing the UK to complain to an independent arbitrator and exit the backstop if the EU sought to “trap” it.
Britain’s leader also claimed the UK could unilaterally leave the backstop if talks on a future relationship broke down.
Mr Juncker made it clear there will be no further negotiations on the exit deal and if the agreement don’t pass in the Commons tonight there will be no “third chance”.
READ MORE: Brexit latest: ERG Star Chamber advises MPs NOT to back May's deal - READ letter in FULL
He said: "There will be no new negotiations. It is this.
"In politics, sometimes you get a second chance. It is what we do with the second chance that counts. Because there will be no third chance.
"Let us be crystal clear about the choice - it is this deal or Brexit might not happen at all."
However, her deal has now been dealt a blow by Attorney General Geoffrey Cox after he admitted the legal risk on the Irish backstop "remains unchanged".
Mr Cox said the Prime Minister’s revised divorce deal from the EU had not given Britain legal means of exiting the Irish backstop arrangement unilaterally if "intractable differences”.
This letter came out just hours before a Commons vote is due at 7pm tonight - followed by a letter from Jacob Rees Mogg's ERG group, which called on MPs not to back the deal.
The ominous words could potentially have sunk the Prime Minister’s EU Withdrawal Agreement once and for all.
How close will the Brexit vote tonight be?
Undecided
- Tory Brexiteer Rebels: 108
- Labour rebels: 10
- Total: 118
Vote yes
- Government + Conservative Loyalists: 196
- Independents: Four
- Total: 200
Vote no
- Tory Remain Rebels: Eight
- Labour: 235
- The Independent Group: 11
- SNP: 35
- DUP: 10
- Others (incl. Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, Green and Independent MPs): 21
- Total: 320
Brexit: UK can NOT be put at risk says Sir Bill Cash
Looking at how the predicted voting could turn out, it will come down to the wire.
However, it looks like Mrs May will not get her deal passed in Parliament tonight.
It is not known how many members the ERG have, but their rejection of Theresa May's deal is likely to see the Prime Minister suffering another catastrophic defeat in the Commons.
Even if all the undecided MPs voted in favour of the Brexit deal, the latest news of the DUP deciding to vote against it would keep the Prime Minister just short of a majority with 318 voting for and 320 against.