Houthi Red Sea bombing could have immense ramifications for Britain

Yemeni Houthi rebels have released a video purporting to show a British oil tanker blown up in the Red Sea with missiles, a drone, and an unmanned boat all involved.

What appears to be the Cordelia Moon erupts, although its crew have since been accounted for. Given the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah - and the risk of escalation dragging Britain in there - that Iran-backed Houthis struck a UK ship could not have come at a more dangerous time.

There is - as yet - no indication Sir Keir Starmer will send UK troops in to the widening Levantine war or that military assistance has been requested. Indeed there will be little appetite for this, firstly because the Labour base is so sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and secondly because UK military capabilities have been so hollowed out by budget cuts.

The latter point is perhaps most salient. Even joining another joint campaign against the Houthis will stretch UK capacity while - given ongoing escalation - risking Britain's involvement in the Israel-Lebanon conflict.

Frankly the bigger risk right now is the US being dragged in if things escalate, given that Iran and Israel are now involved in a shooting match following Israel's moves on Hezbollah. This, more than anything, increases the chances of British engagement.

There will be those who claim this entire theatre involves no strategic vital interests for Britain. Yet can the UK really claim no interest in destroying the terror activities of Iran-backed proxies across the region?

The UK will be impacted anyway if the oil price continues to spike (neither Britain nor Europe can afford even dearer energy post-Ukraine), something which is especially risky if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint or if it imposes a toll on ships going through the Persian Gulf. Alternatively, the US may request British assistance if the situation worsens.

The attack on a British ship by Iran-backed terrorists would be worrisome enough at the best of times. Against the backdrop of a widening Middle Eastern war, the ramifications could be immense.

Right now, there is no indication escalation is likely. Yet the attack can only magnify tensions in an already volatile situation, as Israel contemplates its next move on Iran (perhaps including striking Iran's critical oil facilities) and the Iranians weigh up their next move, potentially involving seizing and blocking ships transiting international waters.