Sir Keir Starmer could find himself a wartime PM with threat of World War 3 on the rise
These are dark times for the world. Aside from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, neither of which show even the remotest chance of ending, there is the threat once again of a global war erupting in Asia.
Within the last 24 hours alone, Taiwan's defence ministry reported a surge of Chinese military aircraft operating around the island state, after the aircraft carrier Shandong passed by the south of Taiwan and close to the Philippines, a country with which (alongside India) China also has longstanding territorial disputes.
China will wait until the outcome of the likely Biden-Trump rematch (or whatever eleventh hour candidate the Democrats pick) before blockading or invading Taiwan, but Beijing cannot afford to sit on its hands much beyond 2028 if it wants to guarantee its longstanding goal of cracking through the 'first island chain' and pushing the Americans out of Asia for good.
Into this heady mix, Britain of course has its new government, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer saying the UK has a "cast iron commitment" to spending 2.5 per cent of national income on defence.
Yet the new PM refuses to put a timeline on this even as he travelled to Washington for the annual NATO summit. Little wonder, as there are far fewer votes in military spending than the NHS. Yet, Britain's chronically underfunded defences need an almighty boost.
Ukraine aside, it may seem like the UK could sit out a world war centred on Asia in some sort of splendid isolation until one considers the realities. Just as America found in World War II, the conflict will eventually come knocking on the door, and global alliances will drag London in whether Britain likes it or not.
Given Britain's relations with the US and Australia, for instance, could the UK honestly sit back and act as a glorified arms dealer to its allies? Not when one considers the nearby British Indian Ocean Territory hosts a major US troop presence and is well within strike range for China's People's Liberation Army (PLA), a soft underbelly of the Western alliance.
Like it or not, Sir Keir Starmer could find himself a wartime Prime Minister within a short time, and one whose premiership becomes defined by conflict, just as Boris Johnson's government was as defined by Covid as by Brexit.
Military force aside, the economic implications of a war in Asia would dwarf the pandemic by orders of magnitude. China remains the world's workshop, while Taiwan is the global power centre for semiconductors, the very things which power whatever device you are reading this on.
Nearby Japan and Korea are industrial titans, while India and Vietnam - also nearby and certain to get dragged into any armed conflict in Asia - are now major economies and manufacturing players.
If that region goes up in smoke, and the US gets dragged in - forced, if nothing else, to defend its position in Asia to shore up its geopolitical power and the clout of the US dollar - then, war manufacturing aside, the world economy will slam to a halt.
With that could also come huge refugee crises as worldwide depression forces tens, if not hundreds, of millions from the Global South as investment and trade dry up across the developing world.
It may be comforting for Labour to think its time in office will be about building homes and spending more on hospitals. It may also be comforting for the Right to think the next five years will be all about sticking it to Labour on migration and trans issues.
Yet the spectre of World War III could turn the tables on all those assumptions and come to define the next period of history, let alone the current Labour term of office. Given that, Labour's non-committal attitude on defence spending could be cause for alarm.
The UK will not be able to chill out if the balloon goes up. If anything, the UK - one the world's few remaining blue water navies and nuclear powers - will almost certainly find itself in the centre of the action, and that is before getting to the almightiest depression and inflationary conditions which a Labour government would have to cope with.
It's all smiles for Sir Keir right now as he touches down in DC. But there is a calm before the storm feel about the world right now, and Labour could be able to feel the full force of it.
